luckadjusted

Week 1 2021 · September 9, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Buccaneers, Week 1 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 31–29 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Cowboys had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 2:23 left): Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 29
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

September 9, 2021 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −10

Luck index +26 Buccaneers lucky · −26 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 DAL 45 TB 27
  2. 2 DAL 30 TB 20
  3. 3 DAL 20 TB 17
  4. 4 DAL 34 TB 37
  5. 5 DAL 31 TB 37
  6. 6 DAL 14 TB 23
  7. 7 DAL 30 TB 43
  8. 8 DAL 23 TB 41
  9. 9 DAL 31 TB 54
  10. 10 DAL 6 TB 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 26% of them, Buccaneers 74%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+4.2%
Cowboys by 9–167.4%
Cowboys by 1–812.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Buccaneers by 1–823.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.2%
Buccaneers by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 2, without the luck Buccaneers by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds missed · 94% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 60 yds missed · 52% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 48 yds made · 71% expected
  • R. Succop, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 8 for 55 yards, Buccaneers 10 for 95 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:46 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Pat O'Connor), 10 yards +4% DAL +1.0 pts
Q2 14:53 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Cowboys (Nahshon Wright), 5 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 12:59 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.4 pts
Q2 12:55 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 9:09 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 14 yards 0% DAL +0.8 pts
Q2 8:16 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards 0% DAL +0.3 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 15 yards, wiping out the play +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:35 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% TB +1.2 pts
Q3 12:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers, 16 yards +6% DAL +1.7 pts
Q3 8:55 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Bradlee Anae), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 8:44 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +3% DAL +0.9 pts
Q3 0:06 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cowboys (Trevon Diggs), 5 yards +2% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 8:10 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 3:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.6 pts
Q4 2:23 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +31% TB +2.9 pts
Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +8% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 0:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +10% DAL +0.6 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:29 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q3 9:19 G. Zuerlein made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +20% TB DAL: Turnover
3 Q4 5:04 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DAL TB: Field goal
4 Q4 2:23 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +31% TB TB: Field goal
5 Q4 2:00 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +23% DAL DAL: Field goal
6 Q4 1:29 G. Zuerlein made 48-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 20 of 31 from 45+ before +10% DAL DAL: End of game
7 Q4 0:55 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% DAL DAL: End of game
8 Q4 0:07 R. Succop made 36-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +18% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Whitehead (TB S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 37% · Buccaneers 63%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 2
Luck in points
0.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 26% · Buccaneers 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2021 games · Cowboys · Buccaneers

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