luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Giants, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 38–11, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 10 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Rams were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:31 left): the Giants were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 15 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 38
New York Giants 11

October 17, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Rams −7.5

Luck index +3 Rams about even · −3 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 LA 48 NYG 9
  2. 2 LA 41 NYG 9
  3. 3 LA 37 NYG 10
  4. 4 LA 49 NYG 26
  5. 5 LA 39 NYG 19
  6. 6 LA 26 NYG 10
  7. 7 LA 26 NYG 13
  8. 8 LA 41 NYG 31
  9. 9 LA 31 NYG 24
  10. 10 LA 19 NYG 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 97% of them, Giants 3%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 27.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+76.0%
Rams by 9–1614.3%
Rams by 1–86.7%
Level after regulation0.4%
Giants by 1–81.9%
Giants by 9–160.5%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Giants: the final margin was Rams by 27, without the luck Rams by 27.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 32 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 7 for 50 yards, Giants 5 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Cullen Gillaspia), 6 yards 0% LA +0.6 pts
Q1 12:28 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Terrell Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.3 pts
Q1 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Rams (Nick Scott), 10 yards +2% NYG +1.1 pts
Q1 3:32 Defensive Holding on the Rams (Jalen Ramsey), 5 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q1 2:56 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.8 pts
Q2 13:33 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams (Van Jefferson), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.0 pts
Q2 12:58 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.4 pts
Q2 9:54 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LA +0.7 pts
Q2 7:13 Offensive Holding on the Rams, 10 yards +2% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 3:36 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Keion Crossen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.5 pts
Q3 11:55 Delay of Game on the Rams, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 6:00 Running Into the Kicker on the Giants (Cam Brown), 6 yards, wiping out the play 0% NYG +0.4 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 68%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% NYG NYG: Field goal
2 Q1 7:03 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +8% NYG LA: Punt
3 Q1 4:49 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:23 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +11% LA NYG: Punt
5 Q1 1:28 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% NYG LA: Punt
6 Q2 14:24 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% LA NYG: Punt
7 Q2 9:31 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Giants fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +15% LA NYG: Punt
8 Q2 8:11 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cam Akers (LA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Justin Hollins (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Giants 0%

Final margin
Rams by 27
Luck in points
0.4 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 27.4
Replay with same day's form
Rams 97% · Giants 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Rams · Giants

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