luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 14, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Eagles, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Eagles 28–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28
Philadelphia Eagles 22

October 14, 2021 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +15 Buccaneers about even · −15 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 8, Eagles win 2.

  1. 1 TB 34 PHI 3
  2. 2 TB 37 PHI 13
  3. 3 TB 40 PHI 21
  4. 4 TB 44 PHI 30
  5. 5 TB 30 PHI 19
  6. 6 TB 27 PHI 19
  7. 7 TB 19 PHI 14
  8. 8 TB 27 PHI 24
  9. 9 TB 20 PHI 23
  10. 10 TB 3 PHI 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 85% of them, Eagles 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+37.9%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.5%
Buccaneers by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation1.3%
Eagles by 1–89.9%
Eagles by 9–164.1%
Eagles by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.8 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Buccaneers by 6, without the luck Buccaneers by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Buccaneers 7 for 120 yards, Eagles 4 for 41 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +1.0 pts
Q1 7:06 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Eagles (Miles Sanders), 15 yards +2% TB +1.7 pts
Q1 6:38 Encroachment on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.3 pts
Q1 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 45 yards +7% PHI +3.0 pts
Q2 1:24 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.3 pts
Q3 6:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 1 yard +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 5:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Edwards), 50 yards +3% PHI +3.7 pts
Q3 0:49 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Josiah Scott), 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 11:28 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PHI +1.7 pts
Q4 6:46 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 0 yards 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 5:54 Taunting on the Eagles (Genard Avery), 15 yards +4% TB +1.5 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:51 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:45 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedNeutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:32 The Eagles converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 45 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1887 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:38 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +4% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:17 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% PHI TB: Punt
7 Q4 12:43 J. Elliott missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 8 of 16 from 45+ before +4% TB PHI: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:24 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Rob Gronkowski (TB TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TB CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Zach Triner (TB LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 86% · Eagles 14%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 6
Luck in points
0.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 85% · Eagles 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Buccaneers · Eagles

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