luckadjusted

Week 6 2021 · October 17, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Panthers, Week 6 2021: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Panthers 34–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 44 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): G. Joseph missed 47-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final (OT)

Minnesota Vikings 34
Carolina Panthers 28

October 17, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −2.5

Luck index +17 Vikings about even · −17 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 MIN 58 CAR 23
  2. 2 MIN 43 CAR 17
  3. 3 MIN 34 CAR 13
  4. 4 MIN 27 CAR 10
  5. 5 MIN 40 CAR 27
  6. 6 MIN 33 CAR 23
  7. 7 MIN 35 CAR 29
  8. 8 MIN 37 CAR 34
  9. 9 MIN 33 CAR 36
  10. 10 MIN 23 CAR 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 83% of them, Panthers 17%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+44.6%
Vikings by 9–1618.8%
Vikings by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation1.4%
Panthers by 1–89.3%
Panthers by 9–164.7%
Panthers by 17+2.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Vikings by 18.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 73% expected
  • G. Joseph, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Joseph, 50 yds missed · 72% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 11 for 98 yards, Panthers 6 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:41 False Start on the Panthers (Chuba Hubbard), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.6 pts
Q1 0:22 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards 0% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 11:13 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Panthers, 2 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 11:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 1 yard 0% MIN +0.1 pts
Q2 10:42 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +3% CAR +0.7 pts
Q2 9:31 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Vikings (Xavier Woods), 15 yards +3% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIN +1.1 pts
Q2 1:02 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:23 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +1% CAR +0.2 pts
Q3 14:55 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 11:41 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Mackensie Alexander), 5 yards +6% CAR +2.5 pts
Q3 10:46 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.6 pts
Q3 9:57 Defensive Holding on the Vikings (Bashaud Breeland), 5 yards +7% CAR +1.5 pts
Q4 14:52 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 8 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +2.1 pts
Q4 9:05 Face Mask on the Vikings (Dalvin Tomlinson), 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% CAR +2.7 pts
Q4 2:18 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.5 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:20 The Vikings fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CAR MIN: Field goal
2 Q2 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsDelay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% MIN MIN: End of half
3 Q3 6:56 Blocked punt by the PanthersSpecial teams +20% CAR CAR: Opp touchdown
4 Q3 2:30 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q4 0:51 The Panthers converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:42 The Panthers’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +19% CAR CAR: End of game
7 Q4 0:06 G. Joseph missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +38% CAR MIN: Touchdown
8 QOT 8:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +16% MIN MIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Joseph Charlton (CAR P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
12.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 18.6
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 83% · Panthers 17% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2021 games · Vikings · Panthers

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