luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 26, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Bengals, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Ravens 41–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:12 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 16, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 21
Cincinnati Bengals 41

December 26, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −7.5

Luck index +17 Bengals about even · −17 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 2, Bengals win 8.

  1. 1 BAL 28 CIN 17
  2. 2 BAL 24 CIN 21
  3. 3 BAL 17 CIN 20
  4. 4 BAL 14 CIN 20
  5. 5 BAL 7 CIN 16
  6. 6 BAL 13 CIN 24
  7. 7 BAL 17 CIN 31
  8. 8 BAL 23 CIN 40
  9. 9 BAL 13 CIN 34
  10. 10 BAL 14 CIN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 17% of them, Bengals 83%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+1.4%
Ravens by 9–164.8%
Ravens by 1–810.7%
Level after regulation2.1%
Bengals by 1–827.0%
Bengals by 9–1622.1%
Bengals by 17+31.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.8 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 20, without the luck Bengals by 14.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • E. McPherson, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • E. McPherson, 50 yds missed · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Ravens 6 for 27 yards, Bengals 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:19 False Start on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% BAL +1.0 pts
Q1 3:55 Illegal Contact on the Ravens, 5 yards +5% CIN +0.8 pts
Q2 3:17 False Start on the Ravens (Marquise Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Trey Hendrickson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.7 pts
Q2 0:36 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Daryl Worley), 2 yards, wiping out the play +6% CIN +4.8 pts
Q2 0:31 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Kevon Seymour), 0 yards 0% CIN +0.2 pts
Q3 12:51 False Start on the Ravens (Latavius Murray), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 8:33 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards 0% CIN +1.1 pts
Q3 7:27 Taunting on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 15 yards +1% BAL +1.4 pts
Q3 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards 0% BAL +1.0 pts
Q4 10:05 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards 0% CIN +1.1 pts

Ravens penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 40% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:47 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:00 The Ravens converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:55 Illegal Contact on the Ravens, 5 yardsJudgment calls +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:24 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:14 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% BAL CIN: Touchdown
6 Q1 0:30 The Bengals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:12 The Bengals converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +10% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:36 Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Daryl Worley), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1475 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Riley Reiff (CIN T), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Logan Wilson (CIN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Fred Johnson (CIN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by j.johnson · 5.6 pts
  • Marlon Humphrey (BAL CB), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Chris Westry (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Houston (BAL LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Powers (BAL G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devin Duvernay (BAL WR), out · 0.2 pts
  • Tyre Phillips (BAL G), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 20
Luck in points
5.8 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 17% · Bengals 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Ravens · Bengals

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