luckadjusted

Week 16 2021 · December 27, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Saints, Week 16 2021: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Saints 20–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:33 left): the Saints were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 42 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
New Orleans Saints 3

December 27, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Dolphins −3

Luck index +30 Dolphins lucky · −30 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 MIA 26 NO 0
  2. 2 MIA 26 NO 7
  3. 3 MIA 21 NO 6
  4. 4 MIA 24 NO 12
  5. 5 MIA 20 NO 12
  6. 6 MIA 19 NO 14
  7. 7 MIA 30 NO 27
  8. 8 MIA 19 NO 22
  9. 9 MIA 10 NO 19
  10. 10 MIA 10 NO 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 70% of them, Saints 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+23.1%
Dolphins by 9–1620.7%
Dolphins by 1–825.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Saints by 1–816.2%
Saints by 9–168.1%
Saints by 17+3.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.4 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 17, without the luck Dolphins by 10.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. Maher, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Sanders, 59 yds missed · 60% expected
  • J. Sanders, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 65 yards, Saints 7 for 62 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.5 pts
Q1 8:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 5 yards +3% MIA +0.4 pts
Q1 0:24 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Noah Igbinoghene), 10 yards +2% NO +1.0 pts
Q2 10:29 Unnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Alvin Kamara), 15 yards +3% MIA +1.5 pts
Q2 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NO +2.3 pts
Q2 5:31 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Brandon Jones), 15 yards +6% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 2:49 Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.3 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +6% NO +1.5 pts
Q2 1:02 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 1:02 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Marcus Davenport), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts
Q3 6:02 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (David Onyemata), 2 yards +1% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 9:56 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins (Byron Jones), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.1 pts
Q4 7:24 Horse Collar Tackle on the Saints (Pete Werner), 15 yards 0% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 4:40 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.5 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:33 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +42% MIA NO: Punt
2 Q1 6:51 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% MIA MIA: Field goal
3 Q2 10:29 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Saints (Alvin Kamara), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1952 snaps before, position avg 1 per 773 +10% MIA NO: Punt
4 Q2 8:29 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NO NO: Field goal
5 Q2 5:31 Roughing the Passer on the Dolphins (Brandon Jones), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1297 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +6% NO NO: Field goal
6 Q2 3:40 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +5% MIA NO: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% NO NO: Punt
8 Q3 8:56 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Malcolm Jenkins (NO SS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Demario Davis (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Taysom Hill (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by i.book · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Trautman (NO TE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (NO LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Albert Wilson (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 99% · Saints 1%

Final margin
Dolphins by 17
Luck in points
6.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 10.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 70% · Saints 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 16 2021 games · Dolphins · Saints

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