luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · December 9, 2021–December 13

Week 14 2021: who deserved to win

1 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the 49ers beat the Bengals 26–23 in a game they win 37% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 14 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Rams 30–23 @ Cardinals 41% 70% Deserved
Falcons 29–21 @ Panthers 43% 61% Deserved

Week 14 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 49ers W 26–23 @ Bengals 37% +63
2 Saints W 30–9 @ Jets 61% +39
3 Falcons W 29–21 @ Panthers 61% +39
4 Rams W 30–23 @ Cardinals 70% +30
5 Buccaneers W 33–27 vs Bills 73% +27
6 Browns W 24–22 vs Ravens 74% +26
7 Cowboys W 27–20 @ Washington 78% +22
8 Vikings W 36–28 vs Steelers 85% +15
9 Seahawks W 33–13 @ Texans 85% +15
10 Packers W 45–30 vs Bears 87% +13
11 Titans W 20–0 vs Jaguars 89% +11
12 Broncos W 38–10 vs Lions 90% +10
13 Chargers W 37–21 vs Giants 91% +9
14 Chiefs W 48–9 vs Raiders 96% +4
15 Raiders L 9–48 @ Chiefs 4% −4
16 Giants L 21–37 @ Chargers 9% −9
17 Lions L 10–38 @ Broncos 10% −10
18 Jaguars L 0–20 @ Titans 11% −11
19 Bears L 30–45 @ Packers 13% −13
20 Texans L 13–33 vs Seahawks 15% −15
21 Steelers L 28–36 @ Vikings 15% −15
22 Washington L 20–27 vs Cowboys 22% −22
23 Ravens L 22–24 @ Browns 26% −26
24 Bills L 27–33 @ Buccaneers 27% −27
25 Cardinals L 23–30 vs Rams 30% −30
26 Panthers L 21–29 vs Falcons 39% −39
27 Jets L 9–30 vs Saints 39% −39
28 Bengals L 23–26 vs 49ers 63% −63