Week 14 2021 · December 12, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Bills at Buccaneers, Week 14 2021: who deserved to win?
The Buccaneers beat the Bills 33–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.
Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 5:42 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 3, worth 52 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.
Final (OT)
 Buffalo Bills | 27 |
|---|---|
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Buccaneers lucky · −27 Bills
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 3, Buccaneers win 7.
- 1 BUF 41 TB 24
- 2 BUF 37 TB 27
- 3 BUF 37 TB 34
- 4 BUF 27 TB 29
- 5 BUF 34 TB 40
- 6 BUF 24 TB 33
- 7 BUF 14 TB 26
- 8 BUF 26 TB 42
- 9 BUF 37 TB 58
- 10 BUF 16 TB 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 27% of them, Buccaneers 73%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 5.1% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 7.3% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Buccaneers by 1–8 | 23.1% |
| Buccaneers by 9–16 | 18.6% |
| Buccaneers by 17+ | 30.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- R. Succop, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- T. Bass, 21 yds made · 99% expected
- R. Succop, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- T. Bass, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Bills 7 for 65 yards, Buccaneers 4 for 24 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:27 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Taron Johnson), 5 yards | +2% TB +1.1 pts |
| Q2 12:55 | Illegal Shift on the Bills (Stefon Diggs), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% TB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Dane Jackson), 11 yards | +4% TB +1.8 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:21 | Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TB +0.2 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 15 yards | +1% TB +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:35 | Defensive Offside on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% TB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:07 | Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 10 yards | 0% BUF +1.0 pts |
| Q4 5:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 4 yards | +1% BUF +0.8 pts |
| QOT 7:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yards | +12% TB +1.1 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Buccaneers’ chance of winning
As low as 36% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:57 | The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TB | TB: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 3:22 | The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +12% BUF | TB: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 1:55 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +7% TB | BUF: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 1:48 | The Bills converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +13% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:28 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +12% TB | BUF: Field goal |
| 6 | QOT 9:01 | The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +13% TB | BUF: Punt |
| 7 | QOT 7:06 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills, 19 yardsJudgment calls | +12% TB | TB: Touchdown |
| 8 | QOT 5:42 | The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +52% TB | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Antonio Brown (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.6 pts
- Mike Edwards (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Tre'Davious White (BUF CB), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
- Star Lotulelei (BUF DT), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 61% · Buccaneers 39%
- Final margin
- Buccaneers by 6
- Luck in points
- 7.6 for the Buccaneers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 1.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 27% · Buccaneers 73% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2021 games · 
Bills · 
Buccaneers
More from Week 14 2021
- Steelers at Vikings MIN 36–28 · replay 85% for the winner
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 29–21 · replay 61% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns CLE 24–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 27–20 · replay 78% for the winner
- Jaguars at Titans TEN 20–0 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs KC 48–9 · replay 96% for the winner
- Saints at Jets NO 30–9 · replay 61% for the winner
- Seahawks at Texans SEA 33–13 · replay 85% for the winner
- Lions at Broncos DEN 38–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Giants at Chargers LAC 37–21 · replay 91% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 26–23 · replay 37% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 45–30 · replay 87% for the winner
- Rams at Cardinals LA 30–23 · replay 70% for the winner