luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · December 2, 2021–December 6

Week 13 2021: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Seahawks beat the 49ers 30–23 in a game they win 2% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Lions 29–27 vs Vikings 30% 23% Lucky
Steelers 20–19 vs Ravens 38% 70% Deserved
Seahawks 30–23 vs 49ers 41% 2% Lucky
Patriots 14–10 @ Bills 41% 53% Coin flip
Chargers 41–22 @ Bengals 43% 70% Deserved
Washington 17–15 @ Raiders 47% 51% Coin flip

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Seahawks W 30–23 vs 49ers 2% +98
2 Lions W 29–27 vs Vikings 23% +77
3 Washington W 17–15 @ Raiders 51% +49
4 Patriots W 14–10 @ Bills 53% +47
5 Cardinals W 33–22 @ Bears 56% +44
6 Chiefs W 22–9 vs Broncos 65% +35
7 Eagles W 33–18 @ Jets 67% +33
8 Chargers W 41–22 @ Bengals 70% +30
9 Steelers W 20–19 vs Ravens 70% +30
10 Dolphins W 20–9 vs Giants 71% +29
11 Cowboys W 27–17 @ Saints 75% +25
12 Buccaneers W 30–17 @ Falcons 97% +3
13 Rams W 37–7 vs Jaguars 97% +3
14 Colts W 31–0 @ Texans 100% 0
15 Texans L 0–31 vs Colts 0% 0
16 Jaguars L 7–37 @ Rams 3% −3
17 Falcons L 17–30 vs Buccaneers 3% −3
18 Saints L 17–27 vs Cowboys 25% −25
19 Giants L 9–20 @ Dolphins 29% −29
20 Ravens L 19–20 @ Steelers 30% −30
21 Bengals L 22–41 vs Chargers 30% −30
22 Jets L 18–33 vs Eagles 33% −33
23 Broncos L 9–22 @ Chiefs 35% −35
24 Bears L 22–33 vs Cardinals 44% −44
25 Bills L 10–14 vs Patriots 47% −47
26 Raiders L 15–17 vs Washington 49% −49
27 Vikings L 27–29 @ Lions 77% −77
28 49ers L 23–30 @ Seahawks 98% −98