luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Texans, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Texans 31–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:52 left): Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 31
Houston Texans 0

December 5, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Colts −10

Luck index 0 Colts about even · 0 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 IND 44 HOU 3
  2. 2 IND 37 HOU 3
  3. 3 IND 37 HOU 7
  4. 4 IND 27 HOU 0
  5. 5 IND 29 HOU 6
  6. 6 IND 29 HOU 9
  7. 7 IND 23 HOU 6
  8. 8 IND 30 HOU 16
  9. 9 IND 20 HOU 10
  10. 10 IND 24 HOU 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 100% of them, Texans 0%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+89.8%
Colts by 9–167.9%
Colts by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.1%
Texans by 1–80.4%
Texans by 9–160.0%
Texans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 31, without the luck Colts by 29.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 35 yds missed · 92% expected
  • M. Badgley, 23 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 5 for 25 yards, Texans 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:31 False Start on the Colts (Mo Alie-Cox), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.9 pts
Q1 0:02 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 14:03 False Start on the Texans, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% IND 0.0 pts
Q2 8:52 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +9% IND +2.7 pts
Q2 0:43 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards +1% IND +0.9 pts
Q3 6:33 False Start on the Colts (Jack Doyle), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.6 pts
Q4 10:30 Illegal Formation on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.7 pts
Q4 9:00 Intentional Grounding on the Texans (Davis Mills), 10 yards 0% IND +0.8 pts
Q4 2:15 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% HOU +0.5 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:11 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% HOU HOU: Turnover
2 Q1 9:40 The Texans fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% IND HOU: Punt
3 Q1 4:28 M. Badgley missed 35-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +7% HOU IND: Punt
4 Q1 3:45 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% IND HOU: Punt
5 Q2 13:23 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% IND HOU: Punt
6 Q2 10:50 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% HOU HOU: Punt
7 Q2 8:52 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +9% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:56 The Colts converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Justin McCray (HOU C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Zach Cunningham (HOU LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Julian Blackmon (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Tyquan Lewis (IND DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Colts by 31
Luck in points
1.6 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 29.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 100% · Texans 0% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Colts · Texans

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