luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Raiders, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Raiders 17–15, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, Washington win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:03 left): Washington were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 22 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Washington Football Team 17
Las Vegas Raiders 15

December 5, 2021 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −1

Luck index +49 Washington lucky · −49 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 5, Raiders win 5.

  1. 1 WAS 30 LV 10
  2. 2 WAS 20 LV 7
  3. 3 WAS 17 LV 10
  4. 4 WAS 23 LV 19
  5. 5 WAS 16 LV 14
  6. 6 WAS 17 LV 19
  7. 7 WAS 23 LV 27
  8. 8 WAS 26 LV 34
  9. 9 WAS 23 LV 35
  10. 10 WAS 10 LV 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 51% of them, Raiders 49%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+9.1%
Washington by 9–1615.6%
Washington by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation6.1%
Raiders by 1–824.8%
Raiders by 9–1613.9%
Raiders by 17+8.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Washington by 2, without the luck Washington by 4.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • D. Carlson, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Carlson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Johnson, 48 yds made · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 6 for 47 yards, Raiders 6 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:21 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.8 pts
Q2 5:38 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.9 pts
Q2 2:49 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.5 pts
Q3 9:51 False Start on Washington (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LV +0.5 pts
Q3 8:27 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 9 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 4:18 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% LV +1.8 pts
Q3 3:47 Low Block on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 15 yards +4% WAS +0.8 pts
Q3 2:44 Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q4 12:04 Defensive Holding on Washington (Daron Payne), 5 yards 0% LV +0.4 pts
Q4 12:00 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Casey Toohill), 13 yards +8% LV +1.9 pts
Q4 11:07 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Cole Holcomb), 9 yards +7% LV +2.0 pts
Q4 10:30 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Yannick Ngakoue), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:09 D. Carlson made 52-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 16 of 21 from 45+ before +8% LV LV: Punt
3 Q3 4:18 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q4 13:34 Washington converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:00 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Casey Toohill), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 512 snaps before, position avg 1 per 266 +8% LV LV: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:57 The Raiders’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% WAS LV: Field goal
7 Q4 7:03 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +22% LV WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 0:42 B. Johnson made 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ before +12% WAS –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Darren Waller (LV TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Trent Sieg (LV LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joey Slye (WAS K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Wes Schweitzer (WAS G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 54% · Raiders 46%

Final margin
Washington by 2
Luck in points
2.4 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 4.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 51% · Raiders 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Washington · Raiders

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