luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Falcons, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 30–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 10 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 18 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 79% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:27 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 17 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30
Atlanta Falcons 17

December 5, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −11

Luck index +3 Buccaneers about even · −3 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 10, Falcons win 0.

  1. 1 TB 44 ATL 7
  2. 2 TB 31 ATL 3
  3. 3 TB 34 ATL 10
  4. 4 TB 27 ATL 6
  5. 5 TB 24 ATL 6
  6. 6 TB 21 ATL 6
  7. 7 TB 30 ATL 17
  8. 8 TB 23 ATL 13
  9. 9 TB 24 ATL 17
  10. 10 TB 23 ATL 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 97% of them, Falcons 3%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+66.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.5%
Buccaneers by 1–88.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Falcons by 1–82.5%
Falcons by 9–160.3%
Falcons by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Buccaneers by 13, without the luck Buccaneers by 17.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Succop, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 3 for 15 yards, Falcons 6 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:34 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (Duron Harmon), 4 yards +3% TB +1.6 pts
Q2 14:55 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 9:37 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 0 yards 0% ATL 0.0 pts
Q2 7:02 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +8% ATL +1.7 pts
Q2 3:48 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards +2% ATL +0.6 pts
Q2 0:51 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.2 pts
Q3 14:21 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.6 pts
Q4 10:49 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Lee Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% TB +1.8 pts
Q4 7:42 Intentional Grounding on the Falcons (Matt Ryan), 10 yards +2% TB +0.8 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:08 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:38 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% ATL ATL: Field goal
3 Q2 5:01 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +12% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:27 Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +17% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown
5 Q3 7:04 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% TB ATL: Punt
6 Q3 2:15 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:49 Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Lee Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 979 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +10% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 7:42 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Falcons (Matt Ryan), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 2853 snaps before, position avg 1 per 711 +9% TB ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (ATL TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dustin Colquitt (ATL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Richard Sherman (TB CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Antonio Brown (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Whitehead (TB SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Edwards (TB FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 13
Luck in points
4.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 17.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 97% · Falcons 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Buccaneers · Falcons

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