luckadjusted

Week 13 2021 · December 5, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Bengals, Week 13 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Bengals 41–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 57% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 13:53 left): Return touchdown by the Chargers, worth 65 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 41
Cincinnati Bengals 22

December 5, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −2.5

Luck index +30 Chargers lucky · −30 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Bengals win 3.

  1. 1 LAC 43 CIN 13
  2. 2 LAC 34 CIN 12
  3. 3 LAC 36 CIN 21
  4. 4 LAC 31 CIN 19
  5. 5 LAC 26 CIN 17
  6. 6 LAC 23 CIN 17
  7. 7 LAC 22 CIN 20
  8. 8 LAC 21 CIN 24
  9. 9 LAC 27 CIN 34
  10. 10 LAC 24 CIN 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 70% of them, Bengals 30%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+26.3%
Chargers by 9–1620.1%
Chargers by 1–821.3%
Level after regulation2.9%
Bengals by 1–814.8%
Bengals by 9–168.5%
Bengals by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.4 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 19, without the luck Chargers by 13.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • E. McPherson, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds made · 81% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 7 for 51 yards, Bengals 7 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:16 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +1% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 5:45 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 8 yards +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q1 0:04 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LAC +2.4 pts
Q2 14:55 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Bengals (Stanley Morgan Jr.), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.5 pts
Q2 8:47 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +1% LAC +0.9 pts
Q2 7:39 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LAC 0.0 pts
Q2 4:09 Encroachment on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 11:12 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAC +2.3 pts
Q3 9:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Keenan Allen), 10 yards +3% CIN +1.1 pts
Q3 9:47 False Start on the Chargers (Justin Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 7:10 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Chargers, 1 yard · pre-snap 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q4 13:43 False Start on the Chargers (Stephen Anderson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN 0.0 pts
Q4 10:07 Horse Collar Tackle on the Chargers (Chris Rumph), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.7 pts
Q4 8:36 Illegal Shift on the Bengals (Tee Higgins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:43 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:40 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% CIN LAC: Touchdown
3 Q1 11:36 The Chargers converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +10% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:53 The Bengals fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LAC CIN: Turnover
5 Q1 5:16 The Bengals converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% CIN CIN: Turnover
6 Q2 4:22 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Chargers fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% CIN LAC: Turnover
7 Q3 2:12 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% LAC CIN: Punt
8 Q4 13:53 The game turned hereThe Bengals fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +65% LAC CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Riley Reiff (CIN T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Trey Hopkins (CIN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Linval Joseph (LAC NT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Oday Aboushi (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 99% · Bengals 1%

Final margin
Chargers by 19
Luck in points
5.4 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 70% · Bengals 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2021 games · Chargers · Bengals

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