luckadjusted

2021 NFL season · November 25, 2021–November 29

Week 12 2021: who deserved to win

4 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Giants beat the Eagles 13–7 in a game they win 23% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2021 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Raiders 36–33 @ Cowboys 30% 37% Lucky
Giants 13–7 vs Eagles 38% 23% Lucky
Jets 21–14 @ Texans 41% 86% Deserved
Broncos 28–13 vs Chargers 43% 39% Lucky
Packers 36–28 vs Rams 44% 24% Lucky
Dolphins 33–10 vs Panthers 47% 74% Deserved
Washington 17–15 vs Seahawks 47% 89% Deserved

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Giants W 13–7 vs Eagles 23% +77
2 Packers W 36–28 vs Rams 24% +76
3 Raiders W 36–33 @ Cowboys 37% +63
4 Broncos W 28–13 vs Chargers 39% +61
5 Dolphins W 33–10 vs Panthers 74% +26
6 Ravens W 16–10 vs Browns 79% +21
7 Bears W 16–14 @ Lions 80% +20
8 49ers W 34–26 vs Vikings 83% +17
9 Falcons W 21–14 @ Jaguars 85% +15
10 Patriots W 36–13 vs Titans 86% +14
11 Jets W 21–14 @ Texans 86% +14
12 Washington W 17–15 vs Seahawks 89% +11
13 Buccaneers W 38–31 @ Colts 91% +9
14 Bengals W 41–10 vs Steelers 95% +5
15 Bills W 31–6 @ Saints 98% +2
16 Saints L 6–31 vs Bills 2% −2
17 Steelers L 10–41 @ Bengals 5% −5
18 Colts L 31–38 vs Buccaneers 9% −9
19 Seahawks L 15–17 @ Washington 11% −11
20 Texans L 14–21 vs Jets 14% −14
21 Titans L 13–36 @ Patriots 14% −14
22 Jaguars L 14–21 vs Falcons 15% −15
23 Vikings L 26–34 @ 49ers 17% −17
24 Lions L 14–16 vs Bears 20% −20
25 Browns L 10–16 @ Ravens 21% −21
26 Panthers L 10–33 @ Dolphins 26% −26
27 Chargers L 13–28 @ Broncos 61% −61
28 Cowboys L 33–36 vs Raiders 63% −63
29 Rams L 28–36 @ Packers 76% −76
30 Eagles L 7–13 @ Giants 77% −77