luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Patriots, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Titans 36–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:07 left): N. Folk missed 53-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 13
New England Patriots 36

November 28, 2021 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7.5

Luck index +14 Patriots about even · −14 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Patriots win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 31 NE 24
  2. 2 TEN 28 NE 30
  3. 3 TEN 29 NE 34
  4. 4 TEN 13 NE 20
  5. 5 TEN 19 NE 30
  6. 6 TEN 24 NE 38
  7. 7 TEN 21 NE 38
  8. 8 TEN 20 NE 40
  9. 9 TEN 17 NE 40
  10. 10 TEN 9 NE 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 14% of them, Patriots 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+1.4%
Titans by 9–163.5%
Titans by 1–89.2%
Level after regulation1.6%
Patriots by 1–818.6%
Patriots by 9–1623.1%
Patriots by 17+42.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 23, without the luck Patriots by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • R. Bullock, 44 yds missed · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds missed · 64% expected
  • N. Folk, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 5 for 50 yards, Patriots 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q1 12:45 Illegal Motion on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q1 11:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Monty Rice), 5 yards +2% NE +0.9 pts
Q1 7:31 Defensive Offside on the Patriots (Matt Judon), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.3 pts
Q2 9:09 Roughing the Passer on the Patriots (Matt Judon), 15 yards +4% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 5:21 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q2 1:24 Face Mask on the Titans (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 15 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Face Mask on the Titans, 15 yards +4% NE +1.4 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Kyle Van Noy), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.4 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:29 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% NE TEN: Punt
2 Q2 14:28 The Titans missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% NE TEN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 6:11 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% NE TEN: Missed field goal
4 Q2 6:05 R. Bullock missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him +11% NE TEN: Turnover
5 Q2 0:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +11% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:07 N. Folk missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 18 of 24 from 45+ before +13% TEN NE: Field goal
7 Q3 5:12 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +11% NE NE: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:06 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% NE TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Brown (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.4 pts
  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Greg Mabin (TEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derrick Henry (TEN RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nate Davis (TEN G), out · 0.4 pts
  • David Long (TEN LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Evans (TEN LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Dane Cruikshank (TEN SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 4% · Patriots 96%

Final margin
Patriots by 23
Luck in points
16.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 14% · Patriots 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Titans · Patriots

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