Week 12 2021 · November 29, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Seahawks at Washington, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?
Washington beat the Seahawks 17–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, Washington win 9 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
An off day for the Seahawks: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:45 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Seahawks.
Final
 Seattle Seahawks | 15 |
|---|---|
 Washington Football Team | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Washington about even · −11 Seahawks
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Seahawks win 1, Washington win 9.
- 1 SEA 27 WAS 20
- 2 SEA 27 WAS 29
- 3 SEA 24 WAS 30
- 4 SEA 13 WAS 22
- 5 SEA 8 WAS 20
- 6 SEA 7 WAS 22
- 7 SEA 6 WAS 24
- 8 SEA 7 WAS 27
- 9 SEA 2 WAS 26
- 10 SEA 3 WAS 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Seahawks
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Washington they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 11%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Seahawks: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seahawks offenseEPA per play gained | −0.03 | +0.11 | worse by 0.14 |
| Seahawks defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.12 | better by 0.01 |
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.08 | better by 0.02 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.03 | +0.15 | better by 0.17 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Seahawks win 11% of them, Washington 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Seahawks by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 6.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 16.2% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 20.9% |
| Washington by 17+ | 50.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Seahawks 6 for 51 yards, Washington 4 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 14:21 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Sidney Jones), 12 yards | +4% WAS +2.1 pts |
| Q2 9:39 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Carlos Dunlap), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WAS +1.0 pts |
| Q2 1:31 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yards | +7% WAS +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:16 | Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Rasheem Green), 14 yards | +5% WAS +2.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards | +3% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:54 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 13:09 | Offensive Holding on Washington, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +12% SEA +4.8 pts |
| Q4 3:38 | Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kamren Curl), 19 yards | +1% SEA +1.8 pts |
| Q4 0:15 | Illegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SEA 0.0 pts |
Seahawks penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Washington’ chance of winning
As low as 27% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 1:45 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +15% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 0:25 | The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 6:05 | Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 1:31 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1574 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 0:56 | Washington missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time | +10% SEA | WAS: End of half |
| 6 | Q3 13:36 | Washington fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 13:09 | Offensive Holding on Washington, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +12% SEA | SEA: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:15 | The Seahawks’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedIllegal Formation on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +14% WAS | SEA: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Montez Sweat (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Chase Young (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Samuel Cosmi (WAS T), out · 0.6 pts
- Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS TE), out · 0.5 pts
- Chase Roullier (WAS C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Damien Lewis (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
- Tre Brown (SEA DB), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Seahawks 48% · Washington 52%
- Final margin
- Washington by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Seahawks
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Seahawks 11% · Washington 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · 
Seahawks · 
Washington
More from Week 12 2021
- Bears at Lions CHI 16–14 · replay 80% for the winner
- Raiders at Cowboys LV 36–33 · replay 37% for the winner
- Bills at Saints BUF 31–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Falcons at Jaguars ATL 21–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Panthers at Dolphins MIA 33–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Jets at Texans NYJ 21–14 · replay 86% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 13–7 · replay 23% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals CIN 41–10 · replay 95% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts TB 38–31 · replay 91% for the winner
- Titans at Patriots NE 36–13 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 28–13 · replay 39% for the winner
- Rams at Packers GB 36–28 · replay 24% for the winner
- Vikings at 49ers SF 34–26 · replay 83% for the winner
- Browns at Ravens BAL 16–10 · replay 79% for the winner