luckadjusted

Week 12 2021 · November 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Bengals, Week 12 2021: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Steelers 41–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bengals win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bengals were 60% favorites.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 10
Cincinnati Bengals 41

November 28, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −3.5

Luck index +5 Bengals about even · −5 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 0, Bengals win 10.

  1. 1 PIT 9 CIN 12
  2. 2 PIT 21 CIN 26
  3. 3 PIT 19 CIN 27
  4. 4 PIT 13 CIN 24
  5. 5 PIT 20 CIN 33
  6. 6 PIT 3 CIN 19
  7. 7 PIT 10 CIN 29
  8. 8 PIT 3 CIN 24
  9. 9 PIT 10 CIN 36
  10. 10 PIT 10 CIN 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 5% of them, Bengals 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+0.2%
Steelers by 9–160.9%
Steelers by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation0.5%
Bengals by 1–89.6%
Bengals by 9–1622.1%
Bengals by 17+63.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.9 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 31, without the luck Bengals by 30.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. McPherson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 40 yds made · 87% expected
  • E. McPherson, 51 yds made · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Steelers 4 for 30 yards, Bengals 3 for 18 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yards +6% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 5:12 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +5% CIN +1.0 pts
Q1 4:14 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Sam Hubbard), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.5 pts
Q2 3:25 Low Block on the Steelers, 6 yards 0% CIN +0.5 pts
Q2 0:56 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Ja'Marr Chase), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% PIT +2.4 pts
Q4 11:48 Face Mask on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 15 yards, wiping out the play 0% CIN +1.5 pts
Q4 10:36 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 3 yards 0% PIT +0.8 pts

Steelers penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Cameron Sutton), 4 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1896 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:48 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +6% PIT CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 5:12 Illegal Formation on the Steelers (Chase Claypool), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 6 flags in 1346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:13 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q1 2:26 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +3% CIN PIT: Field goal
6 Q2 12:46 The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +3% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q2 8:16 The Bengals converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:37 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +5% CIN CIN: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • Kevin Dotson (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 0% · Bengals 100%

Final margin
Bengals by 31
Luck in points
0.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 30.1
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 5% · Bengals 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2021 games · Steelers · Bengals

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