2020 season · final

Houston Texans, 2020: game by game

The Texans went 4–12 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.6 wins. Luck cost them 2.6: the 3rd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–8.

Every game

How often the Texans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Chiefs	L 20–34	30%	−30
Week 2	vs Ravens	L 16–33	11%	−11
Week 3	@ Steelers	L 21–28	28%	−28
Week 4	vs Vikings	L 23–31	12%	−12
Week 5	vs Jaguars	W 30–14	92%	+8
Week 6	@ Titans	L 36–42	45%	−45
Week 7	vs Packers	L 20–35	13%	−13
Week 9	@ Jaguars	W 27–25	60%	+40
Week 10	@ Browns	L 7–10	57%	−57
Week 11	vs Patriots	W 27–20	56%	+44
Week 12	@ Lions	W 41–25	88%	+12
Week 13	vs Colts	L 20–26	21%	−21
Week 14	@ Bears	L 7–36	12%	−12
Week 15	@ Colts	L 20–27	17%	−17
Week 16	vs Bengals	L 31–37	63%	−63
Week 17	vs Titans	L 38–41	59%	−59

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −30 @ KC

Wk 2 −11 vs BAL

Wk 3 −28 @ PIT

Wk 4 −12 vs MIN

Wk 5 +8 vs JAX

Wk 6 −45 @ TEN

Wk 7 −13 vs GB

Wk 9 +40 @ JAX

Wk 10 −57 @ CLE

Wk 11 +44 vs NE

Wk 12 +12 @ DET

Wk 13 −21 vs IND

Wk 14 −12 @ CHI

Wk 15 −17 @ IND

Wk 16 −63 vs CIN

Wk 17 −59 vs TEN

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Texans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.22	+6.8
Judgment calls	−0.13	−9.7
Injuries	−0.29	−11.8
3rd & 4th downs	−0.32	−5.2
Fumble bounces	−0.32	−6.3