Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Texans at Titans, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?
The Titans beat the Texans 42–36, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 6 of 10.
Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:08 left): the Titans were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 34 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final (OT)
 Houston Texans | 36 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Titans lucky · −45 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Texans win 4, Titans win 6.
- 1 HOU 41 TEN 17
- 2 HOU 40 TEN 27
- 3 HOU 31 TEN 24
- 4 HOU 45 TEN 43
- 5 HOU 40 TEN 42
- 6 HOU 27 TEN 31
- 7 HOU 28 TEN 36
- 8 HOU 22 TEN 34
- 9 HOU 23 TEN 40
- 10 HOU 23 TEN 51
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Texans win 45% of them, Titans 55%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Texans by 17+ | 8.8% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 13.0% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 24.3% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Titans by 17+ | 14.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 88% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 27 yds blocked · 97% expected
- S. Gostkowski, 37 yds missed · 89% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Texans 4 for 46 yards, Titans 7 for 73 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q1 10:11 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Lonnie Johnson Jr.), 8 yards | +6% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Offensive Holding on the Titans (Jayon Brown), 10 yards | +2% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 3:34 | Chop Block on the Texans, 12 yards | +1% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 2:40 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% TEN +1.3 pts |
| Q3 12:09 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 16 yards | +2% TEN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 12:04 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +1% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q3 7:04 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Kristian Fulton), 28 yards | +6% HOU +2.5 pts |
| Q3 4:00 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:10 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +5% HOU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:05 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HOU +0.3 pts |
Texans penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:53 | The Texans converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +8% HOU | HOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:59 | The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +10% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 6:08 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedThe Titans fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +34% HOU | TEN: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q4 14:18 | S. Gostkowski missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +18% HOU | TEN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 10:29 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +9% TEN | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:37 | The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +9% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:53 | The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +7% HOU | HOU: Touchdown |
| 8 | QOT 6:35 | The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +10% TEN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Chris Jackson (TEN DB), out · 0.2 pts
- Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Jordan Akins (HOU TE), out · 0.6 pts
- Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Texans 0% · Titans 100%
- Final margin
- Titans by 6
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Titans by 13.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Texans 45% · Titans 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · 
Texans · 
Titans
More from Week 6 2020
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 40–23 · replay 10% for the winner
- Ravens at Eagles BAL 30–28 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 23–16 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bengals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 38–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Broncos at Patriots DEN 18–12 · replay 51% for the winner
- Lions at Jaguars DET 34–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Washington at Giants NYG 20–19 · replay 86% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 24–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers TB 38–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills KC 26–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 38–10 · replay 85% for the winner