luckadjusted

Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Patriots, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Patriots 18–12, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Broncos win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:03 left): the Patriots were stopped on 4th & 10, worth 21 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Denver Broncos 18
New England Patriots 12

October 18, 2020 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +49 Broncos lucky · −49 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 5, Patriots win 5.

  1. 1 DEN 27 NE 7
  2. 2 DEN 39 NE 24
  3. 3 DEN 23 NE 13
  4. 4 DEN 26 NE 20
  5. 5 DEN 23 NE 21
  6. 6 DEN 17 NE 19
  7. 7 DEN 27 NE 32
  8. 8 DEN 22 NE 31
  9. 9 DEN 24 NE 37
  10. 10 DEN 7 NE 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 51% of them, Patriots 49%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+11.0%
Broncos by 9–1615.1%
Broncos by 1–822.1%
Level after regulation5.0%
Patriots by 1–821.1%
Patriots by 9–1614.1%
Patriots by 17+11.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Broncos by 6, without the luck Broncos by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 45 yds made · 81% expected
  • B. McManus, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • B. McManus, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 41 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. McManus, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • B. McManus, 20 yds made · 100% expected
  • B. McManus, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 2 for 20 yards, Patriots 1 for 4 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 5:41 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), 4 yards +1% DEN +1.6 pts
Q4 10:29 Kick Catch Interference on the Broncos, 15 yards +2% NE +1.4 pts
Q4 10:29 Delay of Game on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.9 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:38 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +14% DEN NE: Punt
2 Q2 13:35 The Broncos converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
3 Q2 6:57 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NE NE: Field goal
4 Q3 9:52 The Broncos converted 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 14% expected +7% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q3 2:20 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Patriots fumbled and the Broncos recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% DEN NE: Turnover
6 Q4 5:25 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% NE DEN: Turnover
7 Q4 2:01 The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +10% NE NE: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 1:03 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +21% DEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Noah Fant (DEN TE), out · 0.6 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Dre'Mont Jones (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Melvin Gordon (DEN RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeremiah Attaochu (DEN LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 56% · Patriots 44%

Final margin
Broncos by 6
Luck in points
2.0 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 51% · Patriots 49% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · Broncos · Patriots

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