Week 6 2020 · October 18, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Washington at Giants, Week 6 2020: who deserved to win?
The Giants beat Washington 20–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Giants win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Giants were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:41 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 82 points of win probability to the Giants.
Final
 Washington Football Team | 19 |
|---|---|
 New York Giants | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Giants about even · −14 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Washington win 1, Giants win 9.
- 1 WAS 14 NYG 10
- 2 WAS 5 NYG 7
- 3 WAS 10 NYG 14
- 4 WAS 17 NYG 24
- 5 WAS 7 NYG 15
- 6 WAS 10 NYG 20
- 7 WAS 14 NYG 27
- 8 WAS 14 NYG 30
- 9 WAS 3 NYG 23
- 10 WAS 6 NYG 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Washington win 14% of them, Giants 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 1.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Washington by 17+ | 0.5% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 3.7% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Giants by 1–8 | 29.6% |
| Giants by 9–16 | 24.8% |
| Giants by 17+ | 30.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Hopkins, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
- G. Gano, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Hopkins, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- G. Gano, 20 yds made · 100% expected
- D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Penalties: Washington 8 for 50 yards, Giants 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:40 | Illegal Motion on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NYG +0.9 pts |
| Q2 8:57 | Roughing the Passer on Washington (Tim Settle), 6 yards | +1% NYG +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:20 | Running Into the Kicker on the Giants (Austin Johnson), 5 yards | +1% WAS +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:25 | Defensive Holding on the Giants (Blake Martinez), 5 yards | 0% WAS +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on Washington, 15 yards | +5% NYG +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:46 | Delay of Game on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% WAS +0.8 pts |
| Q3 7:30 | Encroachment on Washington (Jonathan Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:02 | Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Kendall Fuller), 4 yards | +2% NYG +1.0 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Kyler Fackrell), 15 yards | +7% WAS +1.1 pts |
| Q4 2:21 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 0:36 | Offside on Free Kick on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NYG +0.4 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% NYG +0.6 pts |
Washington penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Giants’ chance of winning
As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:58 | Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Missed field goal |
| 2 | Q1 8:59 | D. Hopkins missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before | +10% NYG | WAS: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 1:11 | Washington converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +9% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:40 | Washington converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 9:07 | Washington were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +7% NYG | WAS: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 3:41 | Washington were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedWashington fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams | +82% NYG | WAS: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 1:37 | Washington converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +7% WAS | WAS: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:36 | Washington’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedOffside on Free Kick on Washington (Khaleke Hudson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 118 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 | +19% NYG | WAS: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out · 0.2 pts
- Steven Sims (WAS WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Matthew Ioannidis (WAS DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Washington 76% · Giants 24%
- Final margin
- Giants by 1
- Luck in points
- 3.6 for the Giants
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Washington by 2.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Washington 14% · Giants 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 6 2020 games · 
Washington · 
Giants
More from Week 6 2020
- Falcons at Vikings ATL 40–23 · replay 10% for the winner
- Ravens at Eagles BAL 30–28 · replay 65% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 23–16 · replay 21% for the winner
- Bengals at Colts IND 31–27 · replay 92% for the winner
- Browns at Steelers PIT 38–7 · replay 84% for the winner
- Broncos at Patriots DEN 18–12 · replay 51% for the winner
- Lions at Jaguars DET 34–16 · replay 82% for the winner
- Texans at Titans TEN 42–36 · replay 55% for the winner
- Jets at Dolphins MIA 24–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Packers at Buccaneers TB 38–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Rams at 49ers SF 24–16 · replay 55% for the winner
- Chiefs at Bills KC 26–17 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cardinals at Cowboys ARI 38–10 · replay 85% for the winner