luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · October 18, 2020–October 19

Week 6 2020: who deserved to win

2 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Falcons beat the Vikings 40–23 in a game they win 10% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 6 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Broncos 18–12 @ Patriots 30% 51% Coin flip
Falcons 40–23 @ Vikings 40% 10% Lucky
Buccaneers 38–10 vs Packers 41% 83% Deserved
49ers 24–16 vs Rams 44% 55% Coin flip
Bears 23–16 @ Panthers 44% 21% Lucky
Cardinals 38–10 @ Cowboys 47% 85% Deserved

Week 6 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Falcons W 40–23 @ Vikings 10% +90
2 Bears W 23–16 @ Panthers 21% +79
3 Broncos W 18–12 @ Patriots 51% +49
4 Chiefs W 26–17 @ Bills 52% +48
5 49ers W 24–16 vs Rams 55% +45
6 Titans W 42–36 vs Texans 55% +45
7 Ravens W 30–28 @ Eagles 65% +35
8 Lions W 34–16 @ Jaguars 82% +18
9 Buccaneers W 38–10 vs Packers 83% +17
10 Steelers W 38–7 vs Browns 84% +16
11 Cardinals W 38–10 @ Cowboys 85% +15
12 Giants W 20–19 vs Washington 86% +14
13 Colts W 31–27 vs Bengals 92% +8
14 Dolphins W 24–0 vs Jets 98% +2
15 Jets L 0–24 @ Dolphins 2% −2
16 Bengals L 27–31 @ Colts 8% −8
17 Washington L 19–20 @ Giants 14% −14
18 Cowboys L 10–38 vs Cardinals 15% −15
19 Browns L 7–38 @ Steelers 16% −16
20 Packers L 10–38 @ Buccaneers 17% −17
21 Jaguars L 16–34 vs Lions 18% −18
22 Eagles L 28–30 vs Ravens 35% −35
23 Texans L 36–42 @ Titans 45% −45
24 Rams L 16–24 @ 49ers 45% −45
25 Bills L 17–26 vs Chiefs 48% −48
26 Patriots L 12–18 vs Broncos 49% −49
27 Panthers L 16–23 vs Bears 79% −79
28 Vikings L 23–40 vs Falcons 90% −90