2020 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2020: game by game
The Packers went 13–3 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.5 wins. Luck added 1.5: the 9th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 4–2.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | W 43–34 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 2 | vs Lions | W 42–21 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 3 | @ Saints | W 37–30 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 4 | vs Falcons | W 30–16 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 6 | @ Buccaneers | L 10–38 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 7 | @ Texans | W 35–20 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 8 | vs Vikings | L 22–28 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 9 | @ 49ers | W 34–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 10 | vs Jaguars | W 24–20 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 11 | @ Colts | L 31–34 | 70% | −70 |
| Week 12 | vs Bears | W 41–25 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 13 | vs Eagles | W 30–16 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 14 | @ Lions | W 31–24 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 15 | vs Panthers | W 24–16 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 16 | vs Titans | W 40–14 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 17 | @ Bears | W 35–16 | 94% | +6 |
| Divisional round | vs Rams | W 32–18 | 86% | +14 |
| NFC Championship | vs Buccaneers | L 26–31 | 28% | −28 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.86 | +17.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.35 | +6.0 |
| Injuries | +0.28 | +11.5 |
| Kicks | +0.11 | +10.4 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.34 | −6.3 |