luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Packers, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Jaguars 24–20, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Packers were 84% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 14:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 17 points of win probability to the Packers. The biggest single swing (Q2, 10:25 left): Return touchdown by the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 20
Green Bay Packers 24

November 15, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −13.5

Luck index +13 Packers about even · −13 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 1, Packers win 9.

  1. 1 JAX 31 GB 23
  2. 2 JAX 26 GB 27
  3. 3 JAX 33 GB 37
  4. 4 JAX 23 GB 31
  5. 5 JAX 23 GB 34
  6. 6 JAX 6 GB 20
  7. 7 JAX 26 GB 44
  8. 8 JAX 17 GB 40
  9. 9 JAX 19 GB 47
  10. 10 JAX 17 GB 50

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 13% of them, Packers 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.3%
Jaguars by 9–163.1%
Jaguars by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–818.0%
Packers by 9–1619.5%
Packers by 17+49.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 4, without the luck Packers by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 52 yds made · 53% expected
  • M. Crosby, 39 yds made · 81% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 7 for 86 yards, Packers 4 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:02 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.8 pts
Q1 9:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 29 yards +8% GB +1.6 pts
Q1 8:06 Chop Block on the Packers, 15 yards +10% JAX +2.0 pts
Q1 3:32 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 10 yards +3% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 12:48 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% GB +0.9 pts
Q2 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +18% JAX +4.9 pts
Q3 11:56 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% GB +3.2 pts
Q3 9:01 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 15 yards, wiping out the play +13% GB +3.7 pts
Q4 14:21 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +17% GB +3.4 pts
Q4 9:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars, 7 yards +3% GB +0.6 pts
Q4 6:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers, 5 yards +2% JAX +0.6 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 34% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:25 Return touchdown by the JaguarsSpecial teams +18% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +18% JAX JAX: End of half
3 Q3 11:56 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 518 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +11% GB GB: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 9:01 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Josh Hines-Allen), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1067 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +13% GB GB: Turnover on downs
5 Q4 14:21 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +17% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:44 C. McLaughlin made 31-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +14% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 12:01 The Packers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:10 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 263rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +12% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jones (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jones (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 43% · Packers 57%

Final margin
Packers by 4
Luck in points
3.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 13% · Packers 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Jaguars · Packers

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