luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Cardinals, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Bills 32–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 7:53 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
Arizona Cardinals 32

November 15, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +31 Cardinals lucky · −31 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 BUF 40 ARI 22
  2. 2 BUF 35 ARI 26
  3. 3 BUF 30 ARI 27
  4. 4 BUF 29 ARI 31
  5. 5 BUF 30 ARI 34
  6. 6 BUF 26 ARI 33
  7. 7 BUF 27 ARI 38
  8. 8 BUF 13 ARI 28
  9. 9 BUF 30 ARI 48
  10. 10 BUF 18 ARI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 31% of them, Cardinals 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+5.9%
Bills by 9–168.6%
Bills by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.6%
Cardinals by 1–823.9%
Cardinals by 9–1619.3%
Cardinals by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Bills: the final margin was Cardinals by 2, without the luck Cardinals by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 9 for 69 yards, Cardinals 7 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:29 False Start on the Cardinals (Kenyan Drake), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 13:10 False Start on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q2 12:12 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q2 6:32 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Delay of Game on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 11:45 Delay of Game on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.4 pts
Q3 10:49 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Dre Kirkpatrick), 5 yards +2% BUF +0.9 pts
Q3 8:18 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% BUF +2.4 pts
Q3 0:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Daryl Worley), 9 yards +2% ARI +1.1 pts
Q4 9:26 False Start on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.8 pts
Q4 8:46 Illegal Shift on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 8:39 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.2 pts
Q4 7:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Devin Singletary), 15 yards +5% ARI +1.2 pts
Q4 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +15% ARI +3.0 pts
Q4 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 10 yards +8% ARI +0.7 pts
Q4 0:49 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +8% BUF +0.4 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:52 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q4 7:53 The game turned hereOffensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q4 5:29 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +13% BUF ARI: Punt
5 Q4 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 657 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +8% ARI ARI: Punt
6 Q4 4:23 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% BUF ARI: Punt
7 Q4 1:57 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:49 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Deionte Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Levi Wallace (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Norman (BUF DB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cody Ford (BUF T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 24% · Cardinals 76%

Final margin
Cardinals by 2
Luck in points
1.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 31% · Cardinals 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Bills · Cardinals

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