luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 12, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Titans, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Titans 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:29 left): the Colts were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 34
Tennessee Titans 17

November 12, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Colts −1

Luck index +33 Colts lucky · −33 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 IND 32 TEN 7
  2. 2 IND 34 TEN 17
  3. 3 IND 34 TEN 21
  4. 4 IND 27 TEN 17
  5. 5 IND 28 TEN 21
  6. 6 IND 17 TEN 13
  7. 7 IND 11 TEN 9
  8. 8 IND 20 TEN 23
  9. 9 IND 19 TEN 27
  10. 10 IND 6 TEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 67% of them, Titans 33%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+19.1%
Colts by 9–1621.3%
Colts by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation4.4%
Titans by 1–816.7%
Titans by 9–168.6%
Titans by 17+3.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Titans: the final margin was Colts by 17, without the luck Colts by 18.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 50 yds made · 69% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 43 yds made · 83% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 44 yds missed · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 9 for 73 yards, Titans 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:40 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% IND +0.8 pts
Q2 13:39 Defensive Holding on the Colts (T.J. Carrie), 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% TEN +1.1 pts
Q2 6:16 Defensive Offside on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% IND +0.1 pts
Q2 6:04 Defensive Offside on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 3:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 17 yards +8% TEN +2.2 pts
Q2 3:06 Roughing the Passer on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 1 yard +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 0:01 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.4 pts
Q4 13:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 15 yards +8% TEN +1.8 pts
Q4 12:43 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +4% IND +0.9 pts
Q4 12:11 Face Mask on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 15 yards +2% IND +1.0 pts
Q4 2:20 Disqualification on the Colts (Al-Quadin Muhammad), 15 yards 0% TEN +2.1 pts
Q4 0:41 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (Tyquan Lewis), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +1.9 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:59 The Colts converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 3:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1330 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +8% TEN TEN: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:40 The Colts converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +8% IND IND: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 7:29 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +17% TEN IND: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:53 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% IND TEN: Punt
6 Q3 1:57 Blocked punt by the ColtsSpecial teams +15% IND IND: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 13:09 Unnecessary Roughness on the Colts (Shaquille Leonard), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1215 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +8% TEN TEN: Missed field goal
8 Q4 12:15 S. Gostkowski missed 44-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +7% IND TEN: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brett Kern (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jack Doyle (IND TE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 100% · Titans 0%

Final margin
Colts by 17
Luck in points
1.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Colts 67% · Titans 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Colts · Titans

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