luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Browns, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Texans 10–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 16 points of win probability to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Browns were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:59 left): the Texans were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 14 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Houston Texans 7
Cleveland Browns 10

November 15, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −4.5

Luck index +57 Browns lucky · −57 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 34 CLE 14
  2. 2 HOU 20 CLE 7
  3. 3 HOU 30 CLE 20
  4. 4 HOU 26 CLE 20
  5. 5 HOU 16 CLE 13
  6. 6 HOU 24 CLE 23
  7. 7 HOU 13 CLE 16
  8. 8 HOU 10 CLE 16
  9. 9 HOU 14 CLE 24
  10. 10 HOU 13 CLE 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 57% of them, Browns 43%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+8.3%
Texans by 9–1615.5%
Texans by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation8.2%
Browns by 1–822.6%
Browns by 9–1612.8%
Browns by 17+6.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.6 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 3, without the luck Texans by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 41 yds made · 79% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 46 yds missed · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 6 for 49 yards, Browns 6 for 63 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:30 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 8:36 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 16 yards +4% HOU +1.3 pts
Q2 11:31 Taunting on the Browns (Jarvis Landry), 12 yards +4% HOU +1.0 pts
Q2 9:33 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 6:41 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.7 pts
Q2 5:13 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.6 pts
Q2 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CLE +2.4 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Cullen Gillaspia), 10 yards +2% CLE +1.0 pts
Q3 3:33 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.7 pts
Q3 1:57 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Austin Hooper), 10 yards +5% HOU +1.4 pts
Q3 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Vernon Hargreaves III), 14 yards +7% CLE +2.6 pts
Q4 5:20 Unnecessary Roughness on the Browns (Mack Wilson), 15 yards +5% HOU +2.0 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 45% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:36 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedThe Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 16 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1519 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 +9% HOU CLE: Field goal
2 Q2 12:59 The Texans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +14% CLE HOU: Punt
3 Q2 0:32 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% HOU CLE: Punt
4 Q2 0:25 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% CLE CLE: Punt
5 Q3 5:41 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q3 3:37 K. Fairbairn missed 46-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 8 of 14 from 45+ before +13% CLE HOU: Punt
7 Q3 2:12 The Browns converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +10% CLE CLE: Touchdown
8 Q3 0:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Vernon Hargreaves III), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1488 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Johnson (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Senio Kelemete (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 72% · Browns 28%

Final margin
Browns by 3
Luck in points
9.6 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Texans 57% · Browns 43% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Texans · Browns

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