luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · November 12, 2020–November 16

Week 10 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Dolphins beat the Chargers 29–21 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 10 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 2 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Patriots 23–17 vs Ravens 30% 93% Deserved
Giants 27–17 vs Eagles 37% 84% Deserved

Week 10 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Dolphins W 29–21 vs Chargers 29% +71
2 Saints W 27–13 vs 49ers 36% +64
3 Browns W 10–7 vs Texans 43% +57
4 Rams W 23–16 vs Seahawks 60% +40
5 Colts W 34–17 @ Titans 67% +33
6 Cardinals W 32–30 vs Bills 69% +31
7 Buccaneers W 46–23 @ Panthers 69% +31
8 Lions W 30–27 vs Washington 84% +16
9 Giants W 27–17 vs Eagles 84% +16
10 Packers W 24–20 vs Jaguars 87% +13
11 Steelers W 36–10 vs Bengals 88% +12
12 Vikings W 19–13 @ Bears 91% +9
13 Patriots W 23–17 vs Ravens 93% +8
14 Raiders W 37–12 vs Broncos 93% +7
15 Broncos L 12–37 @ Raiders 7% −7
16 Ravens L 17–23 @ Patriots 7% −8
17 Bears L 13–19 vs Vikings 9% −9
18 Bengals L 10–36 @ Steelers 12% −12
19 Jaguars L 20–24 @ Packers 13% −13
20 Eagles L 17–27 @ Giants 16% −16
21 Washington L 27–30 @ Lions 16% −16
22 Panthers L 23–46 vs Buccaneers 31% −31
23 Bills L 30–32 @ Cardinals 31% −31
24 Titans L 17–34 vs Colts 33% −33
25 Seahawks L 16–23 @ Rams 40% −40
26 Texans L 7–10 @ Browns 57% −57
27 49ers L 13–27 @ Saints 64% −64
28 Chargers L 21–29 @ Dolphins 71% −71