2020 season · final
Miami Dolphins, 2020: game by game
The Dolphins went 10–6 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.7 wins. Luck added 3.3: the 2nd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Every game
How often the Dolphins win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Patriots | L 11–21 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 2 | vs Bills | L 28–31 | 27% | −27 |
| Week 3 | @ Jaguars | W 31–13 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 4 | vs Seahawks | L 23–31 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 5 | @ 49ers | W 43–17 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 6 | vs Jets | W 24–0 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 8 | vs Rams | W 28–17 | 5% | +95 |
| Week 9 | @ Cardinals | W 34–31 | 31% | +69 |
| Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 29–21 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 11 | @ Broncos | L 13–20 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 12 | @ Jets | W 20–3 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 13 | vs Bengals | W 19–7 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 14 | vs Chiefs | L 27–33 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 15 | vs Patriots | W 22–12 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 16 | @ Raiders | W 26–25 | 9% | +91 |
| Week 17 | @ Bills | L 26–56 | 5% | −5 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Dolphins’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.66 | +28.1 |
| Kicks | +0.57 | +26.9 |
| Injuries | +0.41 | +18.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.32 | +6.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.21 | +13.3 |