luckadjusted

Week 13 2020 · December 6, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Dolphins, Week 13 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Bengals 19–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:32 left): the Bengals converted 3rd & 2, worth 21 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 7
Miami Dolphins 19

December 6, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −10.5

Luck index +9 Dolphins about even · −9 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 1, Dolphins win 9.

  1. 1 CIN 20 MIA 15
  2. 2 CIN 14 MIA 17
  3. 3 CIN 20 MIA 24
  4. 4 CIN 13 MIA 20
  5. 5 CIN 28 MIA 38
  6. 6 CIN 3 MIA 16
  7. 7 CIN 0 MIA 16
  8. 8 CIN 3 MIA 22
  9. 9 CIN 7 MIA 30
  10. 10 CIN 6 MIA 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 9% of them, Dolphins 91%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.4%
Bengals by 9–161.9%
Bengals by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Dolphins by 1–816.3%
Dolphins by 9–1622.8%
Dolphins by 17+50.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.7 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 12, without the luck Bengals by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 25 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Bullock, 53 yds missed · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 48 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Sanders, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Sanders, 19 yds made · 100% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 6 for 62 yards, Dolphins 8 for 54 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:49 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q1 3:20 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 9 yards +2% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 1:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 8 yards, wiping out the play +15% MIA +5.9 pts
Q2 14:21 Defensive Offside on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.2 pts
Q2 11:49 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +14% CIN +4.1 pts
Q2 9:40 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Noah Igbinoghene), 9 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q2 7:07 False Start on the Dolphins (Mack Hollins), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 7:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 15 yards +7% CIN +1.8 pts
Q2 6:38 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 5 yards 0% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 6:31 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Raekwon Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% MIA 0.0 pts
Q2 1:08 Disqualification on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 15 yards +5% MIA +1.8 pts
Q3 14:36 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 4:05 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Mike Thomas), 15 yards 0% MIA +1.3 pts
Q4 9:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Dolphins (Shaq Lawson), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.9 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% CIN CIN: Turnover
2 Q1 3:32 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +21% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:16 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (William Jackson III), 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1540 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +15% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 11:49 Illegal Formation on the Dolphins, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% CIN CIN: Punt
5 Q2 10:18 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +6% MIA CIN: Punt
6 Q2 7:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Dolphins, 15 yardsJudgment calls +7% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
7 Q2 1:08 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedDisqualification on the Bengals (Tyler Boyd), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 1595 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +14% MIA CIN: Missed field goal
8 Q2 1:03 R. Bullock missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 13 of 19 from 45+ before +6% MIA CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Salvon Ahmed (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 4.5 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Redmond (CIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darius Phillips (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 36% · Dolphins 64%

Final margin
Dolphins by 12
Luck in points
13.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 9% · Dolphins 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2020 games · Bengals · Dolphins

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