luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · December 6, 2020–December 8

Week 13 2020: who deserved to win

1 of 15 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: Washington beat the Steelers 23–17 in a game they win 28% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 13 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Giants 17–12 @ Seahawks 21% 54% Coin flip
Washington 23–17 @ Steelers 34% 28% Lucky
Browns 41–35 @ Titans 38% 65% Deserved
Lions 34–30 @ Bears 41% 88% Deserved
Patriots 45–0 @ Chargers 43% 53% Coin flip
Bills 34–24 @ 49ers 46% 50% Coin flip

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Washington W 23–17 @ Steelers 28% +72
2 Bills W 34–24 @ 49ers 50% +50
3 Patriots W 45–0 @ Chargers 53% +47
4 Giants W 17–12 @ Seahawks 54% +46
5 Saints W 21–16 @ Falcons 56% +44
6 Browns W 41–35 @ Titans 65% +35
7 Raiders W 31–28 @ Jets 72% +29
8 Ravens W 34–17 vs Cowboys 77% +23
9 Vikings W 27–24 vs Jaguars 77% +23
10 Colts W 26–20 @ Texans 79% +21
11 Lions W 34–30 @ Bears 88% +12
12 Chiefs W 22–16 vs Broncos 89% +11
13 Packers W 30–16 vs Eagles 90% +10
14 Dolphins W 19–7 vs Bengals 91% +9
15 Rams W 38–28 @ Cardinals 91% +9
16 Cardinals L 28–38 vs Rams 9% −9
17 Bengals L 7–19 @ Dolphins 9% −9
18 Eagles L 16–30 @ Packers 10% −10
19 Broncos L 16–22 @ Chiefs 11% −11
20 Bears L 30–34 vs Lions 12% −12
21 Texans L 20–26 vs Colts 21% −21
22 Jaguars L 24–27 @ Vikings 23% −23
23 Cowboys L 17–34 @ Ravens 23% −23
24 Jets L 28–31 vs Raiders 28% −29
25 Titans L 35–41 vs Browns 35% −35
26 Falcons L 16–21 vs Saints 44% −44
27 Seahawks L 12–17 vs Giants 46% −46
28 Chargers L 0–45 vs Patriots 47% −47
29 49ers L 24–34 vs Bills 50% −50
30 Steelers L 17–23 vs Washington 72% −72