luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · November 26, 2020–December 2

Week 12 2020: who deserved to win

4 of 16 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Vikings beat the Panthers 28–27 in a game they win 29% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 12 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
49ers 23–20 @ Rams 36% 43% Coin flip
Falcons 43–6 vs Raiders 40% 83% Deserved
Titans 45–26 @ Colts 41% 87% Deserved
Washington 41–16 @ Cowboys 43% 68% Deserved
Patriots 20–17 vs Cardinals 47% 35% Lucky

Week 12 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Vikings W 28–27 vs Panthers 29% +71
2 Patriots W 20–17 vs Cardinals 35% +65
3 49ers W 23–20 @ Rams 43% +57
4 Chiefs W 27–24 @ Buccaneers 49% +51
5 Dolphins W 20–3 @ Jets 65% +35
6 Washington W 41–16 @ Cowboys 68% +32
7 Browns W 27–25 @ Jaguars 72% +28
8 Giants W 19–17 @ Bengals 78% +22
9 Falcons W 43–6 vs Raiders 83% +17
10 Saints W 31–3 @ Broncos 84% +16
11 Steelers W 19–14 vs Ravens 86% +14
12 Titans W 45–26 @ Colts 87% +13
13 Texans W 41–25 @ Lions 88% +12
14 Bills W 27–17 vs Chargers 91% +9
15 Seahawks W 23–17 @ Eagles 92% +8
16 Packers W 41–25 vs Bears 97% +3
17 Bears L 25–41 @ Packers 3% −3
18 Eagles L 17–23 vs Seahawks 8% −8
19 Chargers L 17–27 @ Bills 9% −9
20 Lions L 25–41 vs Texans 12% −12
21 Colts L 26–45 vs Titans 13% −13
22 Ravens L 14–19 @ Steelers 14% −14
23 Broncos L 3–31 vs Saints 16% −16
24 Raiders L 6–43 @ Falcons 17% −17
25 Bengals L 17–19 vs Giants 22% −22
26 Jaguars L 25–27 vs Browns 28% −28
27 Cowboys L 16–41 vs Washington 32% −32
28 Jets L 3–20 vs Dolphins 35% −35
29 Buccaneers L 24–27 vs Chiefs 51% −51
30 Rams L 20–23 vs 49ers 57% −57
31 Cardinals L 17–20 @ Patriots 65% −65
32 Panthers L 27–28 @ Vikings 71% −71