luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Patriots, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Cardinals 20–17, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 43 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 1:52 left): Z. Gonzalez missed 45-yard field goal, worth 23 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 17
New England Patriots 20

November 29, 2020 · Gillette Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −1

Luck index +65 Patriots very lucky · −65 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 6, Patriots win 4.

  1. 1 ARI 31 NE 10
  2. 2 ARI 24 NE 10
  3. 3 ARI 29 NE 19
  4. 4 ARI 24 NE 17
  5. 5 ARI 27 NE 23
  6. 6 ARI 22 NE 20
  7. 7 ARI 28 NE 30
  8. 8 ARI 20 NE 24
  9. 9 ARI 20 NE 30
  10. 10 ARI 16 NE 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 65% of them, Patriots 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+12.9%
Cardinals by 9–1617.6%
Cardinals by 1–831.4%
Level after regulation3.4%
Patriots by 1–820.3%
Patriots by 9–1610.5%
Patriots by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Patriots: the final margin was Patriots by 3, without the luck Cardinals by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 47 yds made · 75% expected
  • N. Folk, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • N. Folk, 50 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cardinals 6 for 50 yards, Patriots 6 for 42 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE 0.0 pts
Q1 11:13 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards +3% NE +1.1 pts
Q1 4:56 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.7 pts
Q1 1:06 Offensive Holding on the Patriots (N'Keal Harry), 10 yards +3% ARI +1.0 pts
Q1 0:50 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yards +5% NE +1.5 pts
Q3 12:00 Illegal Blindside Block on the Patriots (Anfernee Jennings), 15 yards +4% ARI +1.4 pts
Q4 9:50 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 5 yards +10% ARI +2.4 pts
Q4 9:14 False Start on the Cardinals (Dan Arnold), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.6 pts
Q4 8:41 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Stephon Gilmore), 2 yards +4% ARI +1.6 pts
Q4 7:23 Illegal Use of Hands on the Cardinals (Patrick Peterson), 5 yards +2% NE +0.3 pts
Q4 5:14 False Start on the Patriots (Jakobi Meyers), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ARI +0.5 pts
Q4 0:56 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yards +18% NE +1.5 pts

Cardinals penalties, every game · Patriots penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Patriots’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Patriots were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:45 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% ARI NE: Punt
2 Q2 0:03 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +14% NE ARI: Punt
3 Q3 6:29 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +9% NE ARI: Punt
4 Q4 9:50 Defensive Holding on the Patriots (Jason McCourty), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 951 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:00 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +15% ARI ARI: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:52 The game turned hereZ. Gonzalez missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 13 of 18 from 45+ before +23% NE –
7 Q4 0:56 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Isaiah Simmons), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 263 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +18% NE NE: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 N. Folk made 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 5 of 9 from 45+ before +23% NE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Byron Cowart (NE DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Larry Fitzgerald (ARI WR), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Corey Peters (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Daniels (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Deionte Thompson (ARI S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 49% · Patriots 51%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
3.9 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 65% · Patriots 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Cardinals · Patriots

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