luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Lions, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Lions 41–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Texans were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:45 left): Return touchdown by the Texans, worth 19 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 41
Detroit Lions 25

November 26, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Texans −3

Luck index +12 Texans about even · −12 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 HOU 48 DET 12
  2. 2 HOU 65 DET 38
  3. 3 HOU 38 DET 16
  4. 4 HOU 45 DET 27
  5. 5 HOU 31 DET 17
  6. 6 HOU 45 DET 34
  7. 7 HOU 50 DET 42
  8. 8 HOU 30 DET 24
  9. 9 HOU 26 DET 23
  10. 10 HOU 31 DET 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 88% of them, Lions 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+50.6%
Texans by 9–1619.8%
Texans by 1–816.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–86.9%
Lions by 9–162.4%
Lions by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the Lions: the final margin was Texans by 16, without the luck Texans by 18.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • M. Prater, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 10 for 74 yards, Lions 4 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 15 yards +2% DET +1.1 pts
Q1 5:31 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% DET +1.7 pts
Q1 4:38 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET 0.0 pts
Q1 3:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Reggie Ragland), 15 yards +5% HOU +1.9 pts
Q2 13:42 Illegal Contact on the Texans (Zach Cunningham), 5 yards +2% DET +0.9 pts
Q2 12:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 15 yards +4% HOU +1.1 pts
Q2 10:32 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +13% DET +3.6 pts
Q2 3:57 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.5 pts
Q2 2:10 Offensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards +4% DET +1.2 pts
Q2 1:05 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Eric Murray), 5 yards +3% DET +0.5 pts
Q4 12:17 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.7 pts
Q4 11:33 Offensive Pass Interference on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% HOU +3.1 pts
Q4 4:15 Delay of Game on the Texans, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 4:14 Running Into the Kicker on the Lions, 4 yards 0% HOU +0.4 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:12 The Texans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% HOU HOU: Punt
2 Q1 4:45 Return touchdown by the TexansSpecial teams +19% HOU HOU: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 4:32 The Lions fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% HOU DET: Turnover
4 Q1 3:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Reggie Ragland), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 756 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +5% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 The Lions fumbled and the Texans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% HOU DET: Touchdown
6 Q2 14:54 The Texans fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% DET HOU: Touchdown
7 Q2 10:32 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +13% DET DET: Punt
8 Q2 8:09 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% DET DET: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Danny Amendola (DET WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Da'Shawn Hand (DET DL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Johnson (HOU RB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • P.J. Hall (HOU DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Texans by 16
Luck in points
2.4 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 18.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 88% · Lions 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Texans · Lions

More from Week 12 2020