luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Jets, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Jets 20–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:52 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 14, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Miami Dolphins 20
New York Jets 3

November 29, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −7.5

Luck index +35 Dolphins lucky · −35 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 7, Jets win 3.

  1. 1 MIA 34 NYJ 9
  2. 2 MIA 41 NYJ 23
  3. 3 MIA 27 NYJ 13
  4. 4 MIA 27 NYJ 16
  5. 5 MIA 17 NYJ 9
  6. 6 MIA 22 NYJ 17
  7. 7 MIA 14 NYJ 12
  8. 8 MIA 14 NYJ 16
  9. 9 MIA 15 NYJ 23
  10. 10 MIA 14 NYJ 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 65% of them, Jets 35%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+16.9%
Dolphins by 9–1620.3%
Dolphins by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation2.5%
Jets by 1–819.4%
Jets by 9–169.6%
Jets by 17+4.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +16.7 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 17, without the luck Dolphins by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds made · 68% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • S. Castillo, 29 yds missed · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 3 for 20 yards, Jets 6 for 74 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:07 Offensive Holding on the Jets (Ryan Griffin), 10 yards +3% MIA +1.1 pts
Q1 9:45 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q1 6:31 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 12:30 Illegal Contact on the Jets (Marcus Maye), 5 yards +2% MIA +0.6 pts
Q2 5:23 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jets (Chris Herndon), 7 yards +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q3 11:53 Offensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Denzel Mims), 10 yards +5% MIA +1.4 pts
Q4 9:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets (Bryce Hall), 12 yards 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 9:13 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +1% NYJ +0.9 pts
Q4 8:38 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jets, 30 yards +2% MIA +2.8 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:20 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
2 Q1 10:26 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% MIA NYJ: Field goal
3 Q1 2:18 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q2 9:02 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:05 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Missed field goal
6 Q3 11:05 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% MIA NYJ: Punt
7 Q3 0:52 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% NYJ MIA: Punt
8 Q4 13:29 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +10% MIA NYJ: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Fant (NYJ T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brian Poole (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Blessuan Austin (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley McDougald (NYJ S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out · 0.2 pts
  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Solomon Kindley (MIA G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Salvon Ahmed (MIA RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 67% · Jets 33%

Final margin
Dolphins by 17
Luck in points
16.7 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 65% · Jets 35% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Dolphins · Jets

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