Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Falcons, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Raiders 43–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 8 of 10.
An off day for the Raiders: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:14 left): the Raiders converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 6 |
|---|---|
 Atlanta Falcons | 43 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +17 Falcons about even · −17 Raiders
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Falcons win 8.
- 1 LV 40 ATL 26
- 2 LV 16 ATL 13
- 3 LV 17 ATL 19
- 4 LV 22 ATL 26
- 5 LV 29 ATL 37
- 6 LV 17 ATL 28
- 7 LV 16 ATL 30
- 8 LV 20 ATL 38
- 9 LV 7 ATL 30
- 10 LV 17 ATL 46
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Raiders
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders offenseEPA per play gained | −0.29 | +0.17 | worse by 0.47 |
| Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.10 | +0.18 | better by 0.28 |
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | −0.10 | +0.12 | worse by 0.22 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.29 | +0.14 | better by 0.44 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 17% of them, Falcons 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 37.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 2.2% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 9.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 23.1% |
| Falcons by 17+ | 39.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 92% expected
- Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 91% expected
- D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
- D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
- Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Raiders 11 for 141 yards, Falcons 6 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons (Hayden Hurst), 10 yards | +2% LV +1.7 pts |
| Q1 13:45 | Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Steven Means), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.5 pts |
| Q1 6:25 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Raiders (Josh Jacobs), 15 yards | +3% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q2 14:56 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.7 pts |
| Q2 14:27 | Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +1.5 pts |
| Q2 11:33 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 10 yards | +3% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 11:25 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (AJ Terrell), 7 yards | +1% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:02 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +13% ATL +3.9 pts |
| Q2 4:29 | Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders, 11 yards | +10% ATL +2.6 pts |
| Q2 4:25 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards | +3% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q2 1:47 | Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Steven Means), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LV +0.6 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maliek Collins), 15 yards | +2% ATL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 6:39 | Illegal Double-Team Block on the Falcons, 12 yards | +1% LV +1.1 pts |
| Q3 5:47 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Isaiah Johnson), 25 yards | +1% ATL +3.0 pts |
| Q3 3:59 | Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Maxx Crosby), 15 yards | 0% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Raiders (Kyle Wilber), 10 yards | 0% ATL +1.0 pts |
| Q4 9:38 | False Start on the Raiders (Hunter Renfrow), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ATL +0.6 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Falcons’ chance of winning
As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:35 | The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +6% ATL | LV: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 8:20 | The Raiders fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% ATL | LV: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 0:14 | The Raiders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +13% LV | LV: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 6:02 | Face Mask on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1082 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +13% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 4:29 | Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders, 11 yardsJudgment calls | +10% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 2:23 | The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +8% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 1:08 | The Raiders fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% ATL | LV: End of half |
| 8 | Q3 11:48 | Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams | +7% ATL | ATL: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Todd Gurley (ATL RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
- Lamarcus Joyner (LV S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 6% · Falcons 94%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 37
- Luck in points
- 22.6 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 14.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 17% · Falcons 83% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · 
Raiders · 
Falcons
More from Week 12 2020
- Texans at Lions HOU 41–25 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys WAS 41–16 · replay 68% for the winner
- Cardinals at Patriots NE 20–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Panthers at Vikings MIN 28–27 · replay 29% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars CLE 27–25 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chargers at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 91% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 20–3 · replay 65% for the winner
- Giants at Bengals NYG 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 45–26 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Broncos NO 31–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 23–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 27–24 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 41–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Seahawks at Eagles SEA 23–17 · replay 92% for the winner
- Ravens at Steelers PIT 19–14 · replay 86% for the winner