Week 12 2020 · December 2, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Steelers, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?
The Steelers beat the Ravens 19–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.
Before kickoff the Steelers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:04 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 14 |
|---|---|
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +14 Steelers about even · −14 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 1, Steelers win 9.
- 1 BAL 27 PIT 21
- 2 BAL 14 PIT 16
- 3 BAL 24 PIT 28
- 4 BAL 10 PIT 17
- 5 BAL 23 PIT 33
- 6 BAL 17 PIT 30
- 7 BAL 6 PIT 22
- 8 BAL 3 PIT 22
- 9 BAL 13 PIT 37
- 10 BAL 7 PIT 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 14% of them, Steelers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 3.8% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 22.9% |
| Steelers by 17+ | 37.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 98% expected
- C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
Penalties: Ravens 7 for 86 yards, Steelers 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:53 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 6:54 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% PIT +1.6 pts |
| Q1 4:31 | False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:14 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Steelers, 10 yards | +1% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 14:51 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 36 yards | +6% PIT +1.8 pts |
| Q3 11:21 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers (Cameron Heyward), 15 yards | +4% BAL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 10:46 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +11% PIT +2.3 pts |
| Q3 5:38 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Ravens, 10 yards | +4% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:55 | Illegal Formation on the Ravens, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +2% PIT +1.4 pts |
| Q4 12:32 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Tyson Alualu), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.9 pts |
| Q4 3:30 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Steelers (Alex Highsmith), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% BAL +0.5 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Steelers’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:44 | The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | BAL: Opp touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 8:32 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +9% BAL | PIT: Opp touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 7:04 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams | +28% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:41 | The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% BAL | PIT: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 3:47 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +10% BAL | BAL: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 0:03 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +13% PIT | BAL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 13:31 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +8% BAL | PIT: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 10:46 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% PIT | PIT: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out · 0.8 pts
- James Conner (PIT RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out (IR), replaced by r.griffin · 7.6 pts
- Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Matt Judon (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Matt Skura (BAL C/G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Pernell McPhee (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Willie Snead (BAL WR/R), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Morgan Cox (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 37% · Steelers 63%
- Final margin
- Steelers by 5
- Luck in points
- 13.1 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Ravens by 8.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 14% · Steelers 86% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · 
Ravens · 
Steelers
More from Week 12 2020
- Texans at Lions HOU 41–25 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington at Cowboys WAS 41–16 · replay 68% for the winner
- Cardinals at Patriots NE 20–17 · replay 35% for the winner
- Panthers at Vikings MIN 28–27 · replay 29% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars CLE 27–25 · replay 72% for the winner
- Chargers at Bills BUF 27–17 · replay 91% for the winner
- Raiders at Falcons ATL 43–6 · replay 83% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 20–3 · replay 65% for the winner
- Giants at Bengals NYG 19–17 · replay 78% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 45–26 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Broncos NO 31–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- 49ers at Rams SF 23–20 · replay 43% for the winner
- Chiefs at Buccaneers KC 27–24 · replay 49% for the winner
- Bears at Packers GB 41–25 · replay 97% for the winner
- Seahawks at Eagles SEA 23–17 · replay 92% for the winner