luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 30, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Eagles, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:17 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 13, worth 18 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 23
Philadelphia Eagles 17

November 30, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +8 Seahawks about even · −8 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 34 PHI 0
  2. 2 SEA 30 PHI 3
  3. 3 SEA 38 PHI 15
  4. 4 SEA 25 PHI 6
  5. 5 SEA 29 PHI 14
  6. 6 SEA 36 PHI 24
  7. 7 SEA 12 PHI 3
  8. 8 SEA 34 PHI 28
  9. 9 SEA 26 PHI 24
  10. 10 SEA 12 PHI 19

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 92% of them, Eagles 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+54.4%
Seahawks by 9–1621.3%
Seahawks by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Eagles by 1–85.3%
Eagles by 9–161.8%
Eagles by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Seahawks by 6, without the luck Seahawks by 6.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 83 yards, Eagles 9 for 79 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:54 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Seahawks (Jarran Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q1 14:31 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% PHI +1.4 pts
Q1 9:26 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 11 yards +2% SEA +1.3 pts
Q1 8:59 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 5 yards +2% SEA +0.7 pts
Q1 2:59 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts
Q1 1:01 Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.7 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.8 pts
Q2 9:25 Horse Collar Tackle on the Eagles (Duke Riley), 15 yards +2% SEA +1.4 pts
Q2 7:36 Illegal Contact on the Eagles (Darius Slay), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.2 pts
Q2 5:40 Intentional Grounding on the Seahawks (Russell Wilson), 10 yards +2% PHI +1.0 pts
Q2 2:46 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Tre Flowers), 5 yards 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q4 12:07 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q4 9:47 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Shaquill Griffin), 9 yards 0% PHI +0.7 pts
Q4 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 29 yards +7% PHI +1.9 pts
Q4 6:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 18 yards +2% SEA +2.5 pts
Q4 2:39 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% SEA +1.6 pts
Q4 0:12 Offside on Free Kick on the Eagles (Duke Riley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.6 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% PHI SEA: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 3:44 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +11% PHI SEA: Punt
4 Q1 2:36 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% SEA PHI: Punt
5 Q2 14:27 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% SEA PHI: Punt
6 Q2 12:17 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:37 J. Elliott made 42-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +9% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 246 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +7% PHI PHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Reed (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reed (SEA DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 81% · Eagles 19%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
0.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 92% · Eagles 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Seahawks · Eagles

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