2020 season · final
Buffalo Bills, 2020: game by game
The Bills went 13–3 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 11.2 wins. Luck added 1.8: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–1.
Playoffs: 2–1, replay wins 1.4.
Every game
How often the Bills win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Jets | W 27–17 | 84% | +16 |
| Week 2 | @ Dolphins | W 31–28 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 3 | vs Rams | W 35–32 | 25% | +75 |
| Week 4 | @ Raiders | W 30–23 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 5 | @ Titans | L 16–42 | 50% | −50 |
| Week 6 | vs Chiefs | L 17–26 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 7 | @ Jets | W 18–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 8 | vs Patriots | W 24–21 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 9 | vs Seahawks | W 44–34 | 74% | +26 |
| Week 10 | @ Cardinals | L 30–32 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 12 | vs Chargers | W 27–17 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 13 | @ 49ers | W 34–24 | 50% | +50 |
| Week 14 | vs Steelers | W 26–15 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 15 | @ Broncos | W 48–19 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 16 | @ Patriots | W 38–9 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | W 56–26 | 95% | +5 |
| Wild Card | vs Colts | W 27–24 | 43% | +57 |
| Divisional round | vs Ravens | W 17–3 | 85% | +15 |
| AFC Championship | @ Chiefs | L 24–38 | 15% | −15 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bills’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.51 | +14.9 |
| Injuries | +0.17 | +6.1 |
| Rest | −0.02 | −0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.07 | −14.5 |
| Kicks | −0.17 | −6.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.23 | −9.4 |