luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Jets, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Jets 18–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 10 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 25 points of win probability to the Jets.

Before kickoff the Bills were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:10 left): Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Buffalo Bills 18
New York Jets 10

October 25, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −9.5

Luck index +3 Bills about even · −3 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 10, Jets win 0.

  1. 1 BUF 37 NYJ 6
  2. 2 BUF 34 NYJ 7
  3. 3 BUF 30 NYJ 7
  4. 4 BUF 33 NYJ 14
  5. 5 BUF 27 NYJ 10
  6. 6 BUF 21 NYJ 7
  7. 7 BUF 27 NYJ 15
  8. 8 BUF 37 NYJ 28
  9. 9 BUF 27 NYJ 20
  10. 10 BUF 10 NYJ 7

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 97% of them, Jets 3%. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+67.3%
Bills by 9–1621.2%
Bills by 1–88.4%
Level after regulation0.4%
Jets by 1–82.2%
Jets by 9–160.4%
Jets by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.0 points to the Jets: the final margin was Bills by 8, without the luck Bills by 18. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Castillo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • T. Bass, 45 yds missed · 78% expected
  • T. Bass, 53 yds made · 63% expected
  • T. Bass, 48 yds made · 72% expected
  • T. Bass, 46 yds made · 76% expected
  • T. Bass, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Bass, 37 yds missed · 90% expected
  • T. Bass, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • T. Bass, 40 yds made · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bills 11 for 106 yards, Jets 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:04 Defensive Offside on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q1 6:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYJ +0.7 pts
Q1 6:11 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q1 2:20 False Start on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q2 13:44 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards +6% BUF +1.4 pts
Q2 12:01 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% NYJ +1.3 pts
Q2 10:18 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 15 yards +2% NYJ +0.8 pts
Q2 7:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Micah Hyde), 13 yards +4% NYJ +1.9 pts
Q2 0:49 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +4% NYJ +1.4 pts
Q3 11:47 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 9:11 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 8 yards +2% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q3 2:10 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +19% NYJ +3.7 pts
Q3 0:04 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Taiwan Jones), 10 yards +5% NYJ +0.6 pts
Q4 11:35 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +11% BUF +2.2 pts
Q4 1:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills (Micah Hyde), 15 yards +1% NYJ +1.2 pts
Q4 1:45 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +1.4 pts
Q4 1:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jets, 9 yards +1% BUF +0.8 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Jets penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:15 T. Bass missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 1 of 2 from 45+ before +13% NYJ BUF: Turnover
2 Q1 1:19 The Jets converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 13% expected +7% NYJ NYJ: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 13:44 Roughing the Passer on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 855 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +6% BUF BUF: Turnover
4 Q2 11:05 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Bills fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +18% NYJ BUF: Field goal
5 Q3 13:04 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% BUF BUF: Field goal
6 Q3 2:10 Illegal Formation on the Bills, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +19% NYJ NYJ: Punt
7 Q4 12:23 T. Bass missed 37-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him +17% NYJ BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 11:35 Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +11% BUF BUF: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Hogan (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jamison Crowder (NYJ WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Sam Ficken (NYJ K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Alex Lewis (NYJ OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chuma Edoga (NYJ T), out · 0.3 pts
  • John Brown (BUF WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Josh Norman (BUF DB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Cody Ford (BUF T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Levi Wallace (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 99% · Jets 1%

Final margin
Bills by 8
Luck in points
10.0 for the Jets
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 18.0
Replay with same day's form
Bills 97% · Jets 3% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Bills · Jets

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