luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Chargers, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Jaguars 39–29, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:30 left): Blocked punt by the Jaguars, worth 29 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 29
Los Angeles Chargers 39

October 25, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −8

Luck index +16 Chargers about even · −16 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 2, Chargers win 8.

  1. 1 JAX 37 LAC 24
  2. 2 JAX 38 LAC 35
  3. 3 JAX 31 LAC 33
  4. 4 JAX 23 LAC 28
  5. 5 JAX 27 LAC 35
  6. 6 JAX 30 LAC 41
  7. 7 JAX 17 LAC 33
  8. 8 JAX 31 LAC 51
  9. 9 JAX 16 LAC 41
  10. 10 JAX 14 LAC 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 16% of them, Chargers 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+1.8%
Jaguars by 9–164.2%
Jaguars by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Chargers by 1–823.4%
Chargers by 9–1622.4%
Chargers by 17+37.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.7 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 10, without the luck Chargers by 2.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Badgley, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • M. Badgley, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 55 yards, Chargers 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:21 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LAC +0.6 pts
Q1 2:39 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q1 1:20 Illegal Motion on the Chargers (Joe Reed), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 11:06 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars (Josh Jones), 15 yards +3% LAC +1.1 pts
Q3 5:40 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yards +8% LAC +1.5 pts
Q3 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% LAC +2.3 pts
Q3 4:30 Roughing the Passer on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 4:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Denzel Perryman), 15 yards +7% JAX +1.6 pts
Q4 8:25 Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.4 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 0:18 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q3 13:30 Blocked punt by the JaguarsSpecial teams +29% JAX JAX: Opp touchdown
3 Q3 7:38 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:40 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars, 5 yardsJudgment calls +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q3 4:45 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:07 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Denzel Perryman), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 459 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q3 3:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +17% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q3 1:56 The Jaguars fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LAC JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out · 0.6 pts
  • Myles Jack (JAX LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Tyler Eifert (JAX TE), out · 0.5 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 13% · Chargers 87%

Final margin
Chargers by 10
Luck in points
7.7 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 16% · Chargers 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Jaguars · Chargers

More from Week 7 2020