luckadjusted

Week 7 2020 · October 25, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Cardinals, Week 7 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals stole one. They beat the Seahawks 37–34, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 30 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 6:23 left): the Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 11, worth 26 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final (OT)

Seattle Seahawks 34
Arizona Cardinals 37

October 25, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −3.5

Luck index +86 Cardinals very lucky · −86 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Cardinals win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 41 ARI 7
  2. 2 SEA 37 ARI 11
  3. 3 SEA 46 ARI 24
  4. 4 SEA 55 ARI 37
  5. 5 SEA 40 ARI 27
  6. 6 SEA 53 ARI 42
  7. 7 SEA 41 ARI 33
  8. 8 SEA 50 ARI 45
  9. 9 SEA 28 ARI 27
  10. 10 SEA 13 ARI 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 86% of them, Cardinals 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+46.9%
Seahawks by 9–1621.5%
Seahawks by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.9%
Cardinals by 1–87.0%
Cardinals by 9–163.6%
Cardinals by 17+2.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.2 points to the Cardinals: the final margin was Cardinals by 3, without the luck Seahawks by 0.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 8 for 78 yards, Cardinals 6 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:53 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 9:45 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.6 pts
Q1 5:08 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 8 yards +4% ARI +1.3 pts
Q1 2:39 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals (Zach Allen), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ARI +0.4 pts
Q2 11:47 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q2 0:59 Tripping on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% ARI +1.6 pts
Q3 7:45 Unnecessary Roughness on the Seahawks (Bobby Wagner), 15 yards +3% ARI +3.1 pts
Q3 6:01 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.1 pts
Q3 2:59 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks, 10 yards +1% ARI +0.9 pts
Q4 8:10 Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Corey Peters), 5 yards +1% SEA +0.9 pts
Q4 3:22 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q4 3:02 Leverage on the Seahawks, 15 yards +6% ARI +3.1 pts
QOT 6:23 False Start on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% ARI +0.7 pts
QOT 1:13 Offensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yards +15% ARI +0.8 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 3% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:45 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q4 12:26 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +13% ARI SEA: Touchdown
3 QOT 8:32 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +23% SEA SEA: Punt
4 QOT 6:23 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFalse Start on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +26% ARI SEA: Punt
5 QOT 2:47 Z. Gonzalez missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +25% SEA ARI: Field goal
6 QOT 1:13 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedOffensive Holding on the Seahawks (David Moore), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 681 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +21% ARI SEA: Turnover
7 QOT 1:04 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +15% SEA –
8 QOT 0:20 Z. Gonzalez made 48-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 10 of 14 from 45+ before +23% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 61% · Cardinals 39%

Final margin
Cardinals by 3
Luck in points
3.2 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 86% · Cardinals 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 7 2020 games · Seahawks · Cardinals

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