luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · October 22, 2020–October 26

Week 7 2020: who deserved to win

3 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Cardinals beat the Seahawks 37–34 in a game they win 14% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 7 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 4 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Cardinals 37–34 vs Seahawks 40% 14% Lucky
49ers 33–6 @ Patriots 41% 83% Deserved
Washington 25–3 vs Cowboys 47% 91% Deserved
Lions 23–22 @ Falcons 47% 79% Deserved
Steelers 27–24 @ Titans 47% 63% Deserved

Week 7 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cardinals W 37–34 vs Seahawks 14% +86
2 Saints W 27–24 vs Panthers 43% +57
3 Buccaneers W 45–20 @ Raiders 46% +54
4 Steelers W 27–24 @ Titans 63% +37
5 Rams W 24–10 vs Bears 78% +22
6 Lions W 23–22 @ Falcons 79% +21
7 Browns W 37–34 @ Bengals 81% +19
8 Eagles W 22–21 vs Giants 82% +18
9 49ers W 33–6 @ Patriots 83% +17
10 Chargers W 39–29 vs Jaguars 84% +16
11 Chiefs W 43–16 @ Broncos 84% +16
12 Packers W 35–20 @ Texans 87% +13
13 Washington W 25–3 vs Cowboys 91% +9
14 Bills W 18–10 @ Jets 97% +3
15 Jets L 10–18 vs Bills 3% −3
16 Cowboys L 3–25 @ Washington 9% −9
17 Texans L 20–35 vs Packers 13% −13
18 Broncos L 16–43 vs Chiefs 16% −16
19 Jaguars L 29–39 @ Chargers 16% −16
20 Patriots L 6–33 vs 49ers 17% −17
21 Giants L 21–22 @ Eagles 18% −18
22 Bengals L 34–37 vs Browns 19% −19
23 Falcons L 22–23 vs Lions 21% −21
24 Bears L 10–24 @ Rams 22% −22
25 Titans L 24–27 vs Steelers 37% −37
26 Raiders L 20–45 vs Buccaneers 54% −54
27 Panthers L 24–27 @ Saints 57% −57
28 Seahawks L 34–37 @ Cardinals 86% −86