luckadjusted

2020 NFL season · October 29, 2020–November 2

Week 8 2020: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were outplayed on the day. The biggest heist: the Dolphins beat the Rams 28–17 in a game they win 5% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was outplayed.

Week 8 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 31–20 vs Titans 29% 9% Lucky
Vikings 28–22 @ Packers 34% 70% Deserved
Steelers 28–24 @ Ravens 38% 37% Lucky
Dolphins 28–17 vs Rams 40% 5% Lucky
Broncos 31–30 vs Chargers 41% 18% Lucky
Falcons 25–17 @ Panthers 46% 37% Lucky
Raiders 16–6 @ Browns 47% 82% Deserved

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Dolphins W 28–17 vs Rams 5% +95
2 Bengals W 31–20 vs Titans 9% +91
3 Broncos W 31–30 vs Chargers 18% +82
4 Steelers W 28–24 @ Ravens 37% +63
5 Falcons W 25–17 @ Panthers 37% +63
6 Buccaneers W 25–23 @ Giants 51% +49
7 Seahawks W 37–27 vs 49ers 59% +41
8 Eagles W 23–9 vs Cowboys 61% +39
9 Vikings W 28–22 @ Packers 70% +30
10 Saints W 26–23 @ Bears 76% +24
11 Colts W 41–21 @ Lions 81% +19
12 Raiders W 16–6 @ Browns 82% +18
13 Bills W 24–21 vs Patriots 91% +9
14 Chiefs W 35–9 vs Jets 98% +2
15 Jets L 9–35 @ Chiefs 2% −2
16 Patriots L 21–24 @ Bills 9% −9
17 Browns L 6–16 vs Raiders 18% −18
18 Lions L 21–41 vs Colts 19% −19
19 Bears L 23–26 vs Saints 24% −24
20 Packers L 22–28 vs Vikings 30% −30
21 Cowboys L 9–23 @ Eagles 39% −39
22 49ers L 27–37 @ Seahawks 41% −41
23 Giants L 23–25 vs Buccaneers 49% −49
24 Panthers L 17–25 vs Falcons 63% −63
25 Ravens L 24–28 vs Steelers 63% −63
26 Chargers L 30–31 @ Broncos 82% −82
27 Titans L 20–31 @ Bengals 91% −91
28 Rams L 17–28 @ Dolphins 95% −95