luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Broncos, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos stole one. They beat the Chargers 31–30, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Chargers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 35 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:07 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Broncos.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 30
Denver Broncos 31

November 1, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Chargers −3

Luck index +82 Broncos very lucky · −82 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 8, Broncos win 2.

  1. 1 LAC 27 DEN 0
  2. 2 LAC 37 DEN 16
  3. 3 LAC 37 DEN 19
  4. 4 LAC 25 DEN 11
  5. 5 LAC 30 DEN 20
  6. 6 LAC 27 DEN 20
  7. 7 LAC 36 DEN 31
  8. 8 LAC 26 DEN 24
  9. 9 LAC 38 DEN 41
  10. 10 LAC 10 DEN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 82% of them, Broncos 18%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+35.4%
Chargers by 9–1621.2%
Chargers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation1.6%
Broncos by 1–810.9%
Broncos by 9–164.7%
Broncos by 17+1.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Broncos by 1, without the luck Broncos by 3.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Badgley, 52 yds made · 62% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Badgley, 33 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Chargers 6 for 67 yards, Broncos 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:29 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.8 pts
Q1 7:36 Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards +5% DEN +1.6 pts
Q1 6:54 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos, 10 yards +2% LAC +0.7 pts
Q2 1:11 Illegal Contact on the Broncos (Josey Jewell), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% LAC +0.8 pts
Q3 10:13 Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.5 pts
Q3 5:22 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +1% LAC +1.5 pts
Q3 1:02 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Broncos (DaeSean Hamilton), 10 yards +2% LAC +0.9 pts
Q3 0:10 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LAC +0.4 pts
Q4 12:56 Illegal Shift on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LAC +1.0 pts
Q4 9:44 Face Mask on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +2% LAC +1.1 pts
Q4 7:57 Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Nasir Adderley), 15 yards +3% DEN +1.7 pts
Q4 3:35 Illegal Crackback on the Chargers (Hunter Henry), 15 yards +4% DEN +1.3 pts
Q4 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 5 yards +5% DEN +1.0 pts
Q4 0:07 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yards +19% DEN +1.2 pts

Chargers penalties, every game · Broncos penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:43 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% DEN LAC: Punt
2 Q1 1:51 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% LAC LAC: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 15:00 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +12% DEN LAC: Punt
4 Q2 1:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +13% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 14:54 The Broncos converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +6% DEN DEN: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:31 The Broncos converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:13 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% LAC DEN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:07 The game turned hereDefensive Pass Interference on the Chargers, 17 yardsJudgment calls +19% DEN DEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tim Patrick (DEN WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Desmond King (LAC DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 46% · Broncos 54%

Final margin
Broncos by 1
Luck in points
2.8 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 82% · Broncos 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Chargers · Broncos

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