luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · October 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Panthers, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 25–17, but the Panthers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 4:01 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 25
Carolina Panthers 17

October 29, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −1.5

Luck index +63 Falcons very lucky · −63 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 ATL 31 CAR 13
  2. 2 ATL 41 CAR 30
  3. 3 ATL 29 CAR 23
  4. 4 ATL 30 CAR 28
  5. 5 ATL 28 CAR 30
  6. 6 ATL 17 CAR 22
  7. 7 ATL 6 CAR 13
  8. 8 ATL 23 CAR 34
  9. 9 ATL 19 CAR 34
  10. 10 ATL 14 CAR 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 37% of them, Panthers 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+5.0%
Falcons by 9–1610.7%
Falcons by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation3.3%
Panthers by 1–830.7%
Panthers by 9–1616.4%
Panthers by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.7 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 8, without the luck Falcons by 5.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • Y. Koo, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 6 for 63 yards, Panthers 6 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Isaiah Oliver), 8 yards +5% CAR +1.5 pts
Q1 10:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Deion Jones), 15 yards +3% CAR +1.1 pts
Q1 4:44 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CAR +0.9 pts
Q1 2:36 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons, 15 yards +4% CAR +1.4 pts
Q2 1:23 Defensive Holding on the Panthers, 5 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 8:12 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Troy Pride Jr.), 5 yards +3% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 5:45 Delay of Game on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.5 pts
Q3 4:26 Disqualification on the Falcons (Charles Harris), 15 yards +9% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 0:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.5 pts
Q4 6:49 Defensive Holding on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards +3% ATL +0.7 pts
Q4 4:53 Illegal Contact on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% ATL +1.4 pts
Q4 2:50 Defensive Offside on the Falcons (Dante Fowler), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.1 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:44 The Falcons converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Falcons, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q2 4:01 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +12% ATL CAR: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 11:36 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% ATL CAR: Field goal
4 Q3 5:33 The Panthers converted 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% CAR CAR: Field goal
5 Q3 4:26 Disqualification on the Falcons (Charles Harris), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 625 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +9% CAR CAR: Field goal
6 Q3 1:41 The Falcons converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:47 The Panthers converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 18% expected +8% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 1:04 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% ATL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Rasul Douglas (CAR DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Cominsky (ATL DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 94% · Panthers 6%

Final margin
Falcons by 8
Luck in points
2.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 37% · Panthers 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Falcons · Panthers

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