luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Eagles, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Cowboys 23–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 5:34 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 75 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 9
Philadelphia Eagles 23

November 1, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Eagles −10

Luck index +39 Eagles lucky · −39 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 4, Eagles win 6.

  1. 1 DAL 43 PHI 24
  2. 2 DAL 43 PHI 31
  3. 3 DAL 17 PHI 10
  4. 4 DAL 20 PHI 17
  5. 5 DAL 13 PHI 15
  6. 6 DAL 23 PHI 27
  7. 7 DAL 16 PHI 24
  8. 8 DAL 14 PHI 26
  9. 9 DAL 10 PHI 26
  10. 10 DAL 10 PHI 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 39% of them, Eagles 61%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+7.1%
Cowboys by 9–1612.8%
Cowboys by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.8%
Eagles by 1–824.5%
Eagles by 9–1617.5%
Eagles by 17+16.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 14, without the luck Eagles by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 65% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 49 yds made · 66% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 59 yds made · 49% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 52 yds missed · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Cowboys 7 for 68 yards, Eagles 4 for 28 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:56 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cowboys (Jaylon Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 1:09 Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 14:11 Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Rudy Ford), 10 yards +2% DAL +0.6 pts
Q2 4:06 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.4 pts
Q2 2:27 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Randy Gregory), 15 yards +5% PHI +1.9 pts
Q3 14:54 False Start on the Eagles (Dallas Goedert), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +1.0 pts
Q3 14:11 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Anthony Brown), 23 yards +6% PHI +2.4 pts
Q3 5:07 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 5 yards +2% PHI +0.2 pts
Q3 0:55 Defensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Avonte Maddox), 8 yards +4% DAL +1.2 pts
Q3 0:51 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards +4% PHI +0.8 pts
Q4 4:00 Delay of Game on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 33% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:54 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 5:57 The Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI DAL: Punt
3 Q2 11:38 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% DAL PHI: Punt
4 Q2 0:32 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% DAL PHI: End of half
5 Q3 6:18 G. Zuerlein missed 52-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 14 of 20 from 45+ before +8% PHI DAL: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 1:58 The Eagles converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:30 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% DAL DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 5:34 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Cowboys fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams +75% PHI DAL: Safety

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.9 pts
  • DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI DB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by b.dinucci · 8.0 pts
  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 1% · Eagles 99%

Final margin
Eagles by 14
Luck in points
6.6 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 39% · Eagles 61% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Cowboys · Eagles

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