luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Packers, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Packers 28–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 13:46 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 8, worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 28
Green Bay Packers 22

November 1, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5.5

Luck index +30 Vikings lucky · −30 Packers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 7, Packers win 3.

  1. 1 MIN 40 GB 16
  2. 2 MIN 27 GB 10
  3. 3 MIN 23 GB 10
  4. 4 MIN 13 GB 3
  5. 5 MIN 24 GB 17
  6. 6 MIN 35 GB 31
  7. 7 MIN 19 GB 17
  8. 8 MIN 13 GB 16
  9. 9 MIN 3 GB 10
  10. 10 MIN 17 GB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 70% of them, Packers 30%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+15.8%
Vikings by 9–1622.5%
Vikings by 1–830.3%
Level after regulation1.6%
Packers by 1–819.4%
Packers by 9–168.1%
Packers by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +13.4 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 6, without the luck Packers by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Vikings 7 for 36 yards, Packers 9 for 85 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:49 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 13:40 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Robert Tonyan), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 7:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q2 6:57 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 0 yards · pre-snap 0% GB 0.0 pts
Q2 6:00 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +0.7 pts
Q2 5:47 Encroachment on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIN +0.4 pts
Q2 4:04 Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q3 12:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 20 yards +8% MIN +3.1 pts
Q3 11:49 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% GB +0.9 pts
Q3 10:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yards +6% MIN +2.1 pts
Q3 9:21 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIN +2.3 pts
Q3 2:20 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% MIN +1.4 pts
Q3 1:54 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marcedes Lewis), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +1.3 pts
Q4 12:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Irv Smith Jr.), 10 yards +2% GB +2.0 pts
Q4 3:53 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% GB +3.0 pts
Q4 3:00 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +1% MIN +1.3 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:09 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:33 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 13:46 The Vikings converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jaire Alexander), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1507 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q3 10:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Josh Jackson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 587 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q3 8:07 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% MIN GB: Punt
7 Q3 6:05 The Vikings converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +11% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:12 The Packers fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • David Bakhtiari (GB T), out · 1.4 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Jones (GB RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 19% · Packers 81%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
13.4 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 70% · Packers 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Vikings · Packers

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