2020 season · final
Cleveland Browns, 2020: game by game
The Browns went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.8 wins. Luck added 2.2: the 5th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 0.7.
Every game
How often the Browns win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Ravens | L 6–38 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 2 | vs Bengals | W 35–30 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 3 | vs Washington | W 34–20 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 4 | @ Cowboys | W 49–38 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 5 | vs Colts | W 32–23 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 6 | @ Steelers | L 7–38 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 7 | @ Bengals | W 37–34 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 8 | vs Raiders | L 6–16 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 10 | vs Texans | W 10–7 | 43% | +57 |
| Week 11 | vs Eagles | W 22–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 12 | @ Jaguars | W 27–25 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 13 | @ Titans | W 41–35 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 14 | vs Ravens | L 42–47 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 15 | @ Giants | W 20–6 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 16 | @ Jets | L 16–23 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 17 | vs Steelers | W 24–22 | 71% | +29 |
| Wild Card | @ Steelers | W 48–37 | 52% | +48 |
| Divisional round | @ Chiefs | L 17–22 | 14% | −14 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Browns’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.27 | +12.5 |
| Rest | +0.06 | +2.2 |
| Kicks | −0.04 | −6.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.14 | −18.1 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.16 | 0.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.20 | −20.8 |