luckadjusted

Week 2 2020 · September 17, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Browns, Week 2 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Bengals 35–30, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Browns win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Browns were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:25 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 4, worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 30
Cleveland Browns 35

September 17, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −6

Luck index +3 Browns about even · −3 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 0, Browns win 10.

  1. 1 CIN 13 CLE 16
  2. 2 CIN 13 CLE 19
  3. 3 CIN 21 CLE 30
  4. 4 CIN 14 CLE 27
  5. 5 CIN 13 CLE 28
  6. 6 CIN 10 CLE 27
  7. 7 CIN 0 CLE 20
  8. 8 CIN 10 CLE 33
  9. 9 CIN 7 CLE 32
  10. 10 CIN 6 CLE 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 3% of them, Browns 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+0.0%
Bengals by 9–160.4%
Bengals by 1–82.1%
Level after regulation0.5%
Browns by 1–86.9%
Browns by 9–1617.7%
Browns by 17+72.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Browns by 5, without the luck Browns by 12.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Bullock, 43 yds made · 82% expected
  • R. Bullock, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bengals 4 for 45 yards, Browns 8 for 76 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:52 Illegal Blindside Block on the Browns, 15 yards +4% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 9:00 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 14 yards +2% CIN +1.4 pts
Q2 7:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bengals (Akeem Davis-Gaither), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 6:44 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 1:10 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards +2% CLE +0.8 pts
Q2 0:46 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Myles Garrett), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.1 pts
Q3 13:41 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q3 8:02 Encroachment on the Browns (Larry Ogunjobi), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 5:45 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns, 15 yards +1% CIN +1.8 pts
Q3 1:15 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Karl Joseph), 3 yards +2% CIN +0.8 pts
Q4 11:33 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Khalid Kareem), 15 yards +1% CLE +1.4 pts
Q4 7:44 Face Mask on the Browns, 14 yards, wiping out the play +5% CIN +2.2 pts

Bengals penalties, every game · Browns penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 11:08 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% CLE CIN: Field goal
3 Q1 10:25 The Bengals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% CIN CIN: Field goal
4 Q1 7:58 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% CLE CIN: Field goal
5 Q3 10:15 The Browns converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +6% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 8:07 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% CIN CLE: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:02 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Bengals fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CLE CIN: Field goal
8 Q4 7:44 Face Mask on the Browns, 14 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Olivier Vernon (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Mack Wilson (CLE LB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Geno Atkins (CIN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Shawn Williams (CIN SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Auden Tate (CIN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 2% · Browns 98%

Final margin
Browns by 5
Luck in points
7.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 12.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 3% · Browns 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2020 games · Bengals · Browns

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